March 10, 2001	atimes.com

Editorials Indonesia: Toward an Islamic state? In the accompanying news analysis, Kanis Dursin examines implications of the recent shift of allegiance of several smaller Indonesian Islamic political parties from President Abdurrahman Wahid to Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri. Notably, in doing so, these parties abruptly changed their earlier position that by Islamic tenets a woman could not become the head of state. On the face of it, this political shift may portend well for the preservation of the Republic of Indonesia as a secular state governed broadly in line with the inclusive and tolerant Pancasila ideology. Megawati, if and when she succeeds Gus Dur, can not rule on the strength of her own secular PDI-P alone and it would be unwise for her to rely merely on the support of Golkar, the governing party of the Suharto era. Inclusion of several Muslim political formations would tend to ensure that no unbreachable rift between secular reform and Islamic forces occurs. Such thinking, however, is dangerously abstract and ignores Indonesia's current political, social, and economic realities. Had the government of President Wahid succeeded in making substantial economic progress, progress with bringing to justice the economic criminals of the corrupt Suharto regime, and devolving governance of the country from Jakarta in an orderly fashion to the long-exploited provinces, no one would now have any occasion to speak of fears of radical Islamic rule. But in the chaotic circumstances and growing economic misery that now prevail and which Wahid has proven uttterly incapable of controlling and reversing, radical religious and racist ethnic social and political currents thrive. And by attempting to mobilize his own Muslim supporters in East Java on behalf of his rule, Wahid is directly playing into the hands of more radical outfits. By embracing Megawati, the Islamic parties are now positioning themselves for a possible power grab if the transition - as many expect - from Wahid to Megawati turns violent. The strength of Islamic radicalism and fundamentalism lies in its ability to mobilize large masses of supporters willing and able to fight for power without any immediate regard for safety, security or well-being. The taciturn Megawati, who even under the most urgent of circumstances seems to be lost for words and unable to act decisively, would be easy prey for shrewd Islamists who - for a while - may even be content to tolerate her as a figurehead. Kanis Dursin also refers to the role the Indonesian military might play in an Islamic power-push scenario. The army in the past and at present is the only national institution with reasonable secular political credentials that could stand up to an Islamic offensive. The obvious problem is that the military is itself not a unified political force and there are increasing signs that TNI factions are leaning toward radical Muslim leaders. It is with this predicament in mind that advisers to US President George W Bush (Indonesia: Don't let me down! Mar 8) reportedly are considering the need of mending American ties with the TNI, seeing it as the only possible element of stability in a rapidly deteriorating political crisis. Washington has definite regional security concerns. An Indonesian Islamic core state with parts of the country breaking off into independent entities ruled by local warlords is a nightmare scenario not just for Indonesia but for all of East Asia. It would immediately encourage Islamic radicals in Malaysia and the southern Philippines. Violent attacks on ethnic Chinese, typical in Southeast Asia under crisis conditions, would make it difficult for China to stand idly by. Gus Dur has led the country to the edge of the abyss. He should resign now under orderly circumstances or parliament should force him to do so. Any further day lost increases the probability that nightmare scenarios will become reality. ((c)2001 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

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