Asia Times: India and Pakistan: Bitter rivals, linked destinies



	January 09, 1999	atimes.com

India-Pakistan

India and Pakistan: Bitter rivals, linked destinies
By Praful Bidwai

NEW DELHI - India and Pakistan, rivals since theirbirth 51 year ago as independent states, find that theirdestinies are in many ways linked together, although theirsocieties and politics are shaped by divergent trends.

Their recently acquired nuclear-weapons status - causing heightened rivalry - is only one of the many mutual links orsimilarities between the two.

They occupy virtually identical ranks in the human developmentindex of the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP) - among the bottom40 of the 174 states. Roughly half their populations live inpoverty. About two-thirds of their women are illiterate.

Both the South Asian neighbours have over the past two decadesbeen going through an explosion of ethnic prejudice, religiousbigotry and pogroms. The recent killings of Christians in Indiaand of Shi'ites in Pakistan are only the latest instance of this.

This is driven in part by a belligerent religious nationalism- the Hindu right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) project toestablish Hindu primacy in India, and in Pakistan, the Islamicfundamentalists' agenda.

In Pakistan, the rise of religion-driven politics precedesthat in India. In the 1970s, both Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and afterhim, Gen Zia ul-Haq in the 1980s, tried to Islamise Pakistanipolitics as a means of shoring up their collapsing legitimacy.

This only vitiated Pakistan's politics. Democratisation since1988 slowed down Islamisation, and the share of fundamentalistsin the national vote decreased from 17 percent (1986) to just 2percent in 1997.

In India, the rise of Hindu nationalism gathered momentumaround the Ayodhya mosque issue a decade ago and the BJP'sinfluence steadily increased, its national vote tripling between1984 and 1998. One major reason for this was the decline of theCongress Party, India's longest ruling party.

A complex of factors, including mass mobilisation, allowed theBJP to come to power at the national level in March last year. Itbuilt a highly unstable 19-party coalition with largely secularregional parties.

The coalition is today in poor shape. The BJP's own allies nowattack it for its sectarianism and failure to control violence.There are sharp policy and personality differences among them.

Recent events, including the extremely controversial dismissalof India's naval chief, rising crime rates - horrifyingextortion and violence in Bombay, and a spate of murders androbberies in most other cities - and growing intolerance towardsdissent, show the coalition in poor light.

Popular disenchantment with the BJP became starkly evidentduring elections in November to four state legislatures. The BJPlost heavily in all four.

The BJP's electoral debacle is attributable to disillusionmentwith its extremist postures, economic mismanagement, failure todeliver on promises to the poor, and resort to sectarianviolence.

The Congress has been the greatest beneficiary of the BJP'sloss. It scored impressive victories in the state elections. Itnow conveys the impression of being a party in the ascendant.

The latest opinion polls forecast that in an early election,the Congress would win more than double its present score withthe BJP and its allies forecast to win only 130 seats in the 545-strong Lower House of Parliament.

If they are electorally defeated, there is a distinct chancethat the BJP and its front organisations will in theirdesperation foment more sectarian violence and adopt anaggressive stance on the Ayodhya mosque issue.

Even if the Congress wins the next national election, it willnot find it easy to govern India unless it formulates imaginativepolicies on issues relevant to the vast majority: employment,food, education, access to healthcare and basic public services.

This means the Congress will have to move away from itspresent neo-liberal orientation. It will also have to affirm astrong commitment to pluralism and secularism and minorityrights. It is unclear that it is inclined to do all this.

In Pakistan, the trend seems different. The crisis there isworse. Over the past decade, three elected governments weredismissed by the president, in collusion with the all-powerfularmy. And there has been a steady erosion of the democraticspace. There is a systemic crisis and a growing vacuum,which the fundamentalists could fill.

Pakistan's economy is teetering on the brink, and thegovernment is close to defaulting on its external debt (32billion) repayment. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, unable to ruleconsensually, has handed over whole chunks of civilianadministrative functions to the army: collecting electricity andwater dues, running the country's first super-highway from Lahoreto Islamabad, and administering rough-and-ready justice.

In Karachi, the army has been given judicial powers to trycivilian criminal offences and deliver a verdict in a maximum ofeight days. Its first victim, a man charged with killing apoliceman, was executed on Dec. 31.

Both India and Pakistan are likely to experience socialturmoil and endemic political instability in the near future. Astheir crisis of governability grows, their leaders may be temptedto look for shortcuts, and to externalise internal insecurities,by creating tensions across the border. That poses a grave threatin this nuclearised neighbourhood.

IPS

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