Asia Times: S Asian trade and security hostage to hardliners



	October 30, 1999	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

S Asian trade and security hostage to hardliners
By Praful Bidwai

NEW DELHI - Uncertainty looms over the upcoming summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) owing to the military coup in Pakistan and deterioration in India-Pakistan relations.

The meeting of the seven countries, representing one sixth of the world's population, is scheduled for November 26 to 28 in Kathmandu, Nepal. But there is speculation that it may be postponed, if Pakistani Gen Pervez Musharraf drops out with domestic difficulties. Under SAARC rules a summit cannot take place if one of the seven heads is unable to attend.

The uncertainty highlights the precarious state of the regional grouping of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and its vulnerability to events in its two biggest member-states. Current fears over SAARC's future are fueled both by the short-term impact of the political crisis in Pakistan and by the larger impact of the BJP coalition's return to power in India.

''SAARC, tragically, is the world's only region which has failed to tap the potential for social-cultural exchange and economic cooperation, although it needs it the most,'' a senior Bangladeshi official said. Mutual trade in SAARC accounts for under 5 percent of total external trade. And despite recent agreements, progress toward freer trade, which could save more than $4 billion in tariffs, has been slow. ''The reason is that all its small states, and SAARC itself, are hostage both to India-Pakistan rivalry and to internal problems.''

Gen Musharraf's coup has triggered speculation about the durability of relatively weak democratic institutions and governments in South Asia. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh have had military rulers in the past. Nepal is a recently established democracy. Sri Lankan democracy faces severe stress from its civil war. Bhutan is still a monarchy, and Maldives has experienced a coup.

Although there has been no suspension of democratic rights for 25 years, India is still subject to ethnic and militarist influences. The return of the Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has sparked concerns among neighbors. In Sri Lanka, there is growing fear that the BJP's increased dependence on its coalition allies could lead to a hardening of the Indian stance towards ethnic issues on the island.

Recent statements by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and key BJP ally, M. Karunanidhi, support the cause of ''Eelam'' or the Tamil homeland in Sri Lanka. ''We have always given our support for Tamil Eelam and will be the happiest if a separate Tamil Eelam is formed,'' Karunanidhi said. At the peak of the insurgency in Sri Lanka in the 1980s, Tamil Nadu played the role of supply base, sanctuary, and source of financial support for the Tamil Tiger rebels. Its chief minister openly donated funds to the Sri Lankan separatists.

Equally significant is the reappointment of George Fernandes as defence minister in the Indian cabinet. Fernandes too has strong sympathies for ''Eelam''. In December 1997, he hosted a convention of an ''Eelam solidarity'' group in New Delhi. The meeting resolved to support ''Eelam'' and the Tamil rebels, which it declared, ''represent the Tamil people''. Fernandes said: ''The basic purpose of this convention is to make the people of India aware of Tamil Eelam... (the rebels') cause is just ...'' In July last year, Fernandes ordered the Indian Navy not to intercept ships suspected to be carrying arms for the Sri Lankan rebels and transiting through Indian waters.

Bangladesh-India relations were first held up over the 1996 Ganga waters accord, which the BJP opposed. More recently, the BJP has been distinguishing between Hindu migrants from Nepal and Muslims from West Bengal and Bangladesh, holding that the latter are Islamic fundamentalists aiming to destabilize India. Although it has never offered evidence for its charges, the BJP has been rounding up Bengali-speaking people in Indian cities after labeling them ''Bangladeshi infiltrators''.

The November summit of the SAARC requires constructive talking and clear intentions between the seven neighbors, but with recent regional history, the chances of success appear to be slim.

(Inter Press Service)