Asia Times: Pakistan allays Indian fears on Iranian gas pipeline


	June 1, 2000	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Pakistan allays Indian fears on Iranian gas pipeline
By Nadeem Iqbal

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan's military government has ordered work started on a pipeline that can carry natural gas from Iran and Central Asia to India, but not many expect it to serve its intended purpose.

Military ruler Pervez Musharraf last week gave the go-ahead for the construction of the 1500 kilometer pipeline. Musharraf also disclosed that Pakistan is negotiating the purchase of natural gas from the Gulf nations of Qatar and Oman and Central Asian Turkmenistan.

Although the government has not said so explicitly, the decision to build the pipeline is clearly aimed at the energy-hungry Indian market. Pakistan is expected to earn about $600 million annually in transit fees alone. A top government official, who did not want to be identified, told IPS that while a large part of the energy imports from Iran, Central Asia and the Gulf would be used for Pakistan's own needs, cash-strapped Islamabad is keen to sell the surplus to India.

The government's decision on the pipeline is significant, coming soon after India and Iran held discussions in mid-May on energy cooperation, including piping Iranian natural gas to India. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Iftikhar Murshed had told reporters last week that Islamabad was not opposed to the idea of piping Iranian gas to India through Pakistani territory. ''India has adopted several considerations concerning the project, yet Pakistan has never objected to it,'' he said.

According to reports from Tehran, visiting Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh had proposed shipping gas in liquid form from Iran to India as an alternative option to a land pipeline route through Pakistan. However, Iran was reportedly not in favor of this. New Delhi and Tehran have now set up a joint panel to review the technical and security aspects of the proposal to pipe the gas from Iran to India.

In a statement issued in April, the Indian Foreign Office had said India was not interested in importing gas that had to pass over Pakistani territory. Nuclear rivals India and Pakistan, who have gone to war three times over Kashmir, are considered unlikely to reach agreement on transit for Gulf and Central Asian gas through Pakistani territory.

Senior government officials who have been closely involved with diplomatic negotiations on the issue, told IPS on condition of anonymity that Indian fears of Pakistan cutting off India's energy supplies in the event of political tension were unfounded. Although Islamabad and New Delhi may not be friends, Pakistan would not want to annoy ''tested friend'' Iran which is closely involved in developing Pakistan's oil industry, they pointed out. Iran is helping Pakistan build a $1.1 billion refinery, expected to be ready next year. The 130,000 barrels per day plant would double Pakistan's domestic petroleum refining capacity.

Experts say there are no major technical obstacles to building pipelines over Pakistani territory to take gas from Turkmenistan or Iran to Pakistan and India. Nor is there any problem in taking gas from Qatar to the two countries through a coastal pipeline.

Energy analysts point out that the use of natural gas in Pakistan and India has grown substantially in the past two decades. Estimates by the International Energy Agency suggest that India's demand for gas would swell four-fold by the year 2010. It would more than double in Pakistan by then. At current production rates, the proven fuel reserves in both nations are estimated to last for no more than 40 years. In the absence of major new discoveries in these countries, India and Pakistan would have to look overseas to meet their energy needs, say experts.

According to Toufiq Siddiqui, President of the Hawaii-based Global Environment and Energy and a former regional energy advisor to the United Nations, Pakistan and India have much to gain from joint gas imports. Siddiqui has calculated that each of the two poor nations could save several hundreds of millions of dollars every year by jointly importing Central Asian gas.

Islamabad's keenness for gas imports was evident in Musharraf's early May visit to Turkmenistan where he held talks on a year-old proposal for a pipeline from the Central Asian nation to Pakistan passing through Afghanistan. In April 1999, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and the Taleban rulers of Kabul, had agreed to revive the $2 billion gas pipeline project. This would lay a 1.2 meter thick, 1,400 kilometer long pipeline from Turkmenistan's Daulatabad gas field through Afghanistan to Multan in central Pakistan.

Pakistan wants to reduce its oil import bill and has declared gas as the fuel of choice for its future energy needs.

(Inter Press Service)

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�1999 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.

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