Asia Times: Turning the tables on the Tigers


	June 8, 2000	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Turning the tables on the Tigers
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
June 7, 2000

Summary

The seven-month offensive by Sri Lanka's rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has ground to a halt due to major weapons purchases by Sri Lanka's government. But, the fight will continue, as controlling the northern city of Jaffna is critical for both the rebels and the government. The Tamils' situation looks increasingly precarious and the volatility of the situation will increasingly invite involvement by an outside power.

Analysis

Sri Lanka's decade-old civil war shows no sign of abating, but the Sri Lankan government is taking advantage of a pause in the fighting to reinforce its position on the Jaffna peninsula with 4,000 additional troops, according to Pakistan's Millat Online. The Tamil Tiger offensive has bogged down just outside the city of Jaffna, while new weaponry appears to have improved the government's situation.

Taking Jaffna is critical for both the government and the rebels, but the chances for a Tiger victory are decreasing. After sweeping through the northern third of Sri Lanka in five months, the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have lost their momentum. Sophisticated combined-arms tactics have given way to isolated shelling and small skirmishes. Government troops still hold the city of Jaffna, and have been able to receive supplies by air and sea.

A massive arms purchasing spree by Sri Lanka is the most likely explanation for this shift on the battlefield. Specifically, multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRLs) and Israeli-made Kfir aircraft have given government troops parity on land and superiority in the air. The addition of MBRLs equalizes the situation on the ground - previously only the LTTE had the launchers, which allowed it to strike at government troops from a distance.

The LTTE has no airpower, and apparently no surface-to-air missiles - as government aircraft have pounded rebel positions with impunity. The only recently downed aircraft was a Mi-24 Hind helicopter, which can be brought down by heavy machine-gun fire.

The current stalemate is unsustainable. The government-controlled city of Jaffna cannot be secure without controlling the rest of the peninsula, much of which is rebel held. Nor can the Tamils safely occupy the peninsula while the government is capable of bringing in troops and supplies through Jaffna's port and airport.

The battle will continue, as neither side is likely to withdraw. Jaffna has value beyond geography and battlefield strategy. Many Tigers view Jaffna as a spiritual capital and the heart of a future Tamil state. The Sri Lankan government has constantly emphasized the importance of the city as a symbol of its military dominance, and its commitment to win the hearts and minds of ordinary Tamils.

Control of Jaffna is critical for the future of Sri Lanka. If the LTTE takes the city, it will complete its control over the northern third of the country - and change the conflict from a two-front war to a one-front war much closer to the capital Columbo. An LTTE victory would damage the ruling government, which faces a general election in November and give the Tamils an excellent negotiating position in peace talks. As the international community becomes more involved in the peace process - Norway is currently acting as a go-between - the possibility of an autonomous or independent Tamil state arises.

If the government holds Jaffna, it will likely retake the rest of the peninsula and push the LTTE back into the northern jungles. The Tamils have expended a massive amount of resources and personnel in this campaign, losses that will take years to recover. The result will be a return to the terrorist-style bombings and shootings of the late 1990s.

The LTTE's chances look slim unless it can regroup and acquire better weaponry. Government firepower is winning the battlefield, and the Sri Lankan navy is beginning to focus on closing the Tamil supply routes. The LTTE's best hope is to acquire surface-to-air missiles. But locating, purchasing, and shipping weapons takes time that the rebels may not have - without the help of an outside sponsor.

The Tamils have one other option. Facing defeat in the north, the LTTE may try to divert the army's attention and resources southward by increasing the bombing campaign in Batticaloa or choosing a new target like Columbo.

The battle for Sri Lanka is reaching a critical point, and outside intervention would tip the balance in either direction. Sri Lanka's location - next to India and on a major trade route - makes it valuable. The Tigers needs weaponry, but foreign assistance could help the Sri Lankan government completely cut the Tamil's supply pipeline.

If an outside power - such as India, China, the United States or their proxies - ever wanted to gain a foothold in Sri Lanka, now is the time to act.

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