Asia Times: Pakistan playing the puppeteer again


	September 27, 2001	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Pakistan playing the puppeteer again
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With the United States and its allies closing the circle around the Taliban, past leaders of Afghanistan are jockeying in anticipation of returning to the mainstream of tribal-based politics in the country, and the possibility of a more compliant Taliban administration being formed is even being explored.

Those making overtures to fill the vacuum in the eventuality of the present extreme hardline Taliban regime being routed include the former interim prime minister, Gulbadin Hekmatyar, the former king, Zahir Shah, as well as leaders of the Northern Alliance, which is waging a war within Afghanistan against the ruling Taliban.

Invigorated by the US forces gathering for a strike into Afghanistan, Northern Alliance forces are overcoming the setback of the recent killing by suicide bombing of their charismatic military leader, Ahmad Shah Masoud, and are launching fresh assaults in an attempt to unseat the Taliban even before the US strikes.

It is learnt that some commanders and leaders of the Northern Alliance, including Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf, chief of the Ittahad-i-Islami Afghanistan, and the commanders of the Islamic Jamiat-i-Islami Afghanistan, Ismail Khan and Abdul Haq, have separately sent messages to the Taliban commanders in the province of Nananghar. They have reportedly offered some form of cooperation in the event of a Taliban defeat in setting up a new government. Although Khan and Haq are ethnic Tajik, they have a strong influence over Pashtu commanders in Nananghar who associated with Jamiat before aligning with the Taliban.

As ethnic Pashtu, the Taliban - Afghans trained in religious schools in Pakistan and former Islamic fighters or Mujahideen - draw a large part of their support from Afghanistan's Pashtu community.

Despite the belief of the Northern Alliance leaders that the present Taliban regime under Mullah Omar is soon to fall, others say that this is not the case. Even though they are diplomatically isolated, with only Pakistan officially backing them following the severing of ties by Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, the Taliban still have many supply lines to at least prolong their survival.

Almost all of the tribes along the Afghan borders with Pakistan and Iran have declared their moral - and armed - support for the Taliban. Even the governor of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province has admitted that although Pakistan has sealed its borders, in return for a bribe of a few dollars border forces will allow trading as usual. This is particularly so in the late evening when trucks loaded with food and oil supplies cross unchecked into Afghanistan under the protection of armed and influential tribes.

The fact remains, though, that with a fresh injection of arms and ammunition from the Russian Federation, the Northern Alliance has intensified its attacks on Taliban forces. According to one military strategist, the plan is to force the Taliban to concentrate in a specific region, where they would be easy game for the seeming inevitable US air strikes. According to reports, this region has been identified as the frontline some 25 miles north of Kabul, the capital. The obvious advantages for the US of capturing Kabul would be its international airport at the former Soviet military base on its outskirts.

Sources say that Gulbadin Hekmatyar, a former Afghan prime minster in exile in Iran, is trying hard to carve a role for himself in Afghan politics, to date unsuccessfully. Gulbadin once had the strongest and most organized force in the region - 125,000 fighters - but it was decimated by defeat and defections to the triumphant Taliban in 1996. It is believed that Gulbadin sent a message to Islamabad, saying that he would be the only trusted friend of Pakistan after the fall of the Taliban. He offered to return to Peshawar on the Afghan border to rally support for the Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan to establish a pro-Pakistan government in Afghanistan.

Similarly, even though he is 86 and ailing, former king Zahir Shah believes that he can piece together the war-battered and shattered Afghan society through the traditional Afghan Loya Jerga, a grand assembly of all Afghan tribes.

Both of these moves to fill the expected vacuum are being opposed by Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), which has an influential hand in dictating events both in its country and in Afghanistan. Although Gulbadin has traditionally enjoyed support from the ISI, the ISI is mindful of his apparent intransigence in refusing to accept the ISI's formula for an interim government in Afghanistan after the departure of the invading Soviets in 1989 and insisting on holding on to absolute power.

Similarly, the Afghan monarchy has traditionally been an arch rival of Pakistan. During his reign from 1933 to 1973 Zahir Shah, who currently lives in exile in Italy, harbored anti-Pakistan elements and supported anti-Pakistan movements seeking the accession of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province to Afghanistan.

Considering these trends, Pakistan has adopted a policy under which it has reiterated its full support for the US-led fight against terrorism, but it has warned that the outside world should not try to forcibly impose a proxy government on Afghanistan in the place of the current Taliban setup.

Yet this appears exactly what Pakistan wants to do. It is learned that Islamabad has assured the US government that it is in contact with area Taliban commanders in Afghanistan and that once (if) the Taliban government in Kabul falls, Pakistan will be able to cultivate a new leadership from within the Taliban ranks of those who will follow the directives of Islamabad.

In this regard, ISI officials have met with key supporters of the Taliban - the chief of the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (Samiul Haq) Maulana Samiul Haq, and the chief of the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (Fazalurehman) Maulana Fazalur Rehman, and has convinced them that there is no other way to survive but to compromise in the search for a new Taliban administration to replace that of Mullah Omar.

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