Asia Times: Musharraf plays a political game


	October 31, 2001	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Musharraf plays a political game
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - While the rapidly-evolving domestic situation in Pakistan places increasing pressure on President General Pervez Musharraf, he at least has some external news to cheer him for his support of the United States in its war against terrorism.

US President George W Bush has signed legislation clearing the way for a full resumption of economic and military aid to Pakistan over the next two years. It is the final stage in removing sanctions imposed on Islamabad after the 1999 military coup led by Musharraf and the nuclear weapons tests it conducted the previous year.

A package of up to US$500 million in economic aid for Pakistan is also expected to be announced this week. The US has already rewarded Musharraf for its decision to allow US forces to use selected air bases in the country and in providing intelligence against the Taliban in Afghanistan, giving cash-strapped Islamabad $100 million in economic assistance and rescheduling $396 million in debt.

On the domestic front, though, a wave of anti-American protests has swept Pakistan since the US began air-raids on Afghanistan on October 7. Initially, these have been kept under control through tacit agreement between Musharraf and the religious parties. However, with Musharraf failing to get moderate Taliban to break from their hardline leaders to form a part of a broad-based government in Afghanistan sympathetic to Pakistan, the president has become more vocal in his criticism of the Taliban. This has alienated many pro-Taliban religious groups, and they are now targeting Musharraf in their protests - the so-called "mullah-military" nexus has been broken.

Further, there is believed to be widespread disquiet within the army over Pakistan's links with the US, and religious leaders are now appealing to the army top brass to censure Musharraf. Some of these leaders have branded him as a "follower of the infidels who has betrayed the Taliban".

The colorful general, who likes get-togethers and walkabouts and hates excessive security measures, has now been restricted to his residence and Islamabad offices on the instructions of his intelligence officials who even fear that his life may be in danger.

Even though Musharraf has purged the top echelons of his army of pro-Taliban officers, sources say that once the street demonstrations against him begin in earnest, he will be at a moral disadvantage over "selling out" the country and vulnerable to any of his confidantes taking advantage of the situation.

A Newsweek poll on October 15 showed that 83 percent of Pakistanis opposed the bombing of Afghanistan, while 51 percent supported Musharraf's decision to go along with the US. Even this support could rapidly be eroded.

The new situation has forced Musharraf to compromise. Previously, he has refused politicians any participation in the government, considering them a curse and "corrupt and useless" with "no role to play in real grass-roots democracy".

Now he is playing on the political field. His first shot was to remove the chairman of the National Accountability Bureau, Lieutenant-General Khalid Maqbool. He has been "retired" to the position of governor of Punjab. This is viewed as a clear signal of a change in policy towards Benazir Bhutto, who served two terms as premier during the period 1988-1999. The National Accountability Bureau has prepared cases against Bhutto relating to corruption.

A further hurdle blocking relations between Musharraf and Bhutto and her Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was removed recently with the sidelining of the former chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lieutenant-General Ahmed Mehmood. On previous occasions, Musharraf has been prepared to give concessions to Benazir and her spouse, Asif Zardari, also facing corruption charges, but Mehmood has always spoiled such developments. Mehmood was also the main force behind the downfall of the final Bhutto government. He was then director-general of military intelligence and instituted many corruption allegations against Asif Zardari, which led to the destruction of Benazir's political career, forcing her to live in exile in the United Arab Emirates.

Benazir Bhutto is said to be now ready to play a role for the military government, and she has said that she sides with the American-led coalition against terrorism. This could be through diffusing the planned mass protests against Musharraf, who realizes that this is something that neither the ISI, intelligence officials nor his non-elected technocrat ministers can do.

Musharraf and his team members over the past few days have also started contacting other prominent politicians, including: the former chief minister of Baluchistan province Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali; the former governor of the Punjab and president of the Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam) Mian Azhar; the former federal minister Shiekh Rasheed Ahmed; and the chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz group) and federal minister Raja Zafarul Haq.

Sources say that although these people are largely spent forces politically, if they do participate in the government they will help redress the imbalance of not having any Punjabis in the top level of the army.

Another development has been that some members of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD), established in December 2000 with the avowed aim of removing Musharraf and restoring democracy, are now keener to strengthen and stabilize Musharraf than seek his destabilization.

Some subtle but significant gestures have been made on the part of the Musharraf government. New political faces are seen on state television endorsing his policies, while detainees from these moderate mainstream parties have been released and allowed to function freely in national politics. National elections are due to be held in October 2002.

The political parties traditionally have strong vote banks, while the religious forces have street power and the ability to bring highly motivated activists onto the streets to oppose or destabilize the government. But their collective votebank has never exceeded 5 percent of the popular vote in any free election in Pakistan since 1970.

Meanwhile, in a separate show of opposition to the US strikes, pro-Taliban Pakistanis have been reported to be still blocking a key transport link between the country and China. It is believed that up to 60 tribesmen are blocking the Karakoram Highway in the small mountain town of Besham, 200 kilometers north of Islamabad. Riaz Durrani, a spokesman for Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, an influential Pakistani religious party, said, "Tribesmen have closed it to express solidarity with the Taliban and to participate in the agitation launched against the government's support for America." A disused airstrip is also reported to have been occupied at the remote town of Chilas in the disputed Northern Areas.

These incidents in remote tribal belts apart, the real test for Musharraf is a planned pro-Taliban sit-in in Islamabad. Exiled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has instructed his workers of the Pakistan Muslim League to join in.

Sources say that these developments have already forced government ministers to tone down their aggressive tone against militant groups and to water down their anti-Taliban and pro-American statements. Even one of the most anti-fundamentalist ministers, the minister of the interior, a retired lieutenant-general, Moinuddin Haider, has issued a statement that the US airstrikes should be stopped. He has also directed government-run media to call those killed in the attacks martyrs.

(Additional reporting by Inter Press Service)

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