Asia Times: Pakistani protesters apply the brakes


	November 10, 2001	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Pakistani protesters apply the brakes
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The anticipated protests in Pakistan against the cooperation of the government with the United States in its war against terrorism took place on Friday, with at least three pro-Taliban people killed by police fire at the Shadan Lund railway station, 90 miles from the central Punjab city of Multan.

The military regime of President General Pervez Musharraf had been well prepared for the demonstrations by religious and political parties, with a strong presence of army, police and paramilitary forces at major cities across the country.

The question, now, though, remains whether the unrest can be translated into a broader campaign of civil disobedience strong enough to force the president to reverse his pro-US stance.

Pakistani air space is the main route for US bombing raids against the Taliban in Afghanistan, but most Pakistanis oppose the bombing, and Musharraf, who is in Washington for talks with President George W Bush, has urged a pause in the attacks during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which starts next week.

The military regime has taken all measures to curtail the strikes that were called for Friday. November 9 is the birthday of Pakistan's national poet, Mohammed Iqbal. Past governments celebrated the occasion by declaring public holidays but the Nawaz Sharif government broke this tradition and since 1997 it has not been one. However, to minimize the effects a strike, Friday was once again a national holiday.

At the same time, the government announced that all anti-US, anti-government rallies or street demonstrations would be crushed with the full force of the law. Helicopters were stationed to sprinkle chemical water on the demonstrators to stain them. They would then be arrested and charged under army regulations. Further, anyone heard speaking out against the army chief (Musharraf) or the armed forces would face sedition charges. Punjabi police carried out prolonged pre-dawn raids on Friday and arrested more than 500 activists who were considered a threat to public peace.

Opposition parties had set Wednesday as a deadline for Musharraf to change is policies, and Friday was the first strong show of protest in their call for civil disobedience.

Earlier, Interior Minister Lieutenant-General Moinuddin Haider had ordered sedition charges to be brought against Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the high-profile leader of the Jamaat-i-Islami, a militant religious organization. He is now under arrest on accusations of calling for officers to rebel against Musharraf.

However, the Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lieutenant-General Ehsan ul-Haq, who, like Qazi and Maulana Fazalur Rehman, chief of the Jamiatul Islam, hails from North West Frontier Province, met these two and explained that Musharraf had called for a halt in the bombing of Afghanistan during Ramadan. Ehsan requested that the two don't pull the legs from under Musharraf at this crucial time as it would create civil unrest and the US might exploit this to intervene in Pakistan's internal affairs. He convinced them that Pakistan would strive for a halt in the bombing through diplomatic efforts, and ensured them that the government would not tolerate the installation of an anti-Pakistan government in Kabul.

Sources said that the both men were convinced by the arguments given by the ISI chief, but they said that things were not completely in their hands. A part of the problem is that feelings have been strongly whipped up in recent days - largely by these very religious leaders - and it would be difficult for them to retreat from their anti-Musharraf position.

Indeed, the situation is so charged that it will take just a little push for the followers of these organizations to turn to extreme measures. In the past, many peaceful demonstrations have turned violent as leaders have lost control of the crowds.

At present, 35 political and religious parties of different sizes are grouped in the Pakistan and Afghanistan Defense Council (PADC) as an opposition alliance, and each one has its own nuisance value. For instance, militant organizations such as the Jaish-i-Mohammed (now the Tehrikul Furqan since being banned as a terror organization), the Harkatul Mujahadin and the Sepah-i-Sahabah have organized public gatherings and are enterprisingly mobilizing the masses to take to the streets.

Such is the situation in the country at present that many parties that were anti-Taliban are now members of the PADC. One example is Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani, a religious scholar with a Western education. Although he is leader of a religious party, he has always taken a relatively progressive line. He was openly against the Afghan jihad in the 1980s against the Soviet Union, even supporting the then communist regime in Kabul.

Now he is not only a part of PADC, but following the arrest of the entire leadership of the PADC, including Qazi, Rehman, Maulana Azam Tariq and Samiul Haq, he has been requested by those detained to lead the anti-Musharraf campaign, which he has agreed to do. This will expose a number of his supporters to the Afghanistan issue.

This trend apart, the real problem is the Pakistani-administered tribal areas, which vigorously pursue their own interests. Recently, tribals blocked a part of the Silk Route (a trade channel between China and Pakistan) in protest against Musharraf's Afghan policy. They have temporarily lifted the barriers at the insistence of some religious scholars, but they say that if the government does not change its policy they will reinstate the blockade.

These tribals are now in a position to play a key role. The majority of the people in the Mohmand Agency have already taken the hard stance that no anti-Taliban people will be allowed to enter into their area, otherwise they will be punished. This is also the case in Bajor and Malakand agencies. Such a unified approach will make it difficult for anti-Taliban commanders to venture into Afghanistan to instigate rebellion among the Taliban.

Commenting on the situation, a former Pakistani ambassador and veteran political analyst who has been an official advisor to every political government in the past 10 years, Hussain Haqqani, said that the new campaign was likely to create unrest in the country, but there was little chance that the leaders of the campaign would turn it into a civil disobedience movement.

The reason, he said, is not that they are not capable of doing so, but that they do not want to give any external force the opportunity to take advantage of the situation.

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