Asia Times: Moving the goalposts for peace


	January 4, 2002	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Moving the goalposts for peace
By Nadeem Malik

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan blames India for moving the goalposts in an attempt to demoralize and frustrate Islamabad amid intense war posturing.

Senior Pakistani officials involved in diplomatic efforts to ease the mounting war mania across the eastern borders said that the Indian government was changing positions on the issue of preconditions for peace. "They want to maintain pressure on the international borders, even if there is no war, to cripple us economically," charged the official.

Pakistani and Indian troops have been engaged in crossborder fire since the December 13 attack on the parliament building in New Delhi. India blames the raid on Pakistani-backed guerrillas, an allegation that Pakistan vehemently denies.

However, in the face of extreme international pressure, the government has frozen the assets of two jihadi organizations based in Pakistan - the Jaish-e-Muhammad and the Lashker-e-Taiba - and arrested their top activists, including Maulana Masood Azhar and Hafiz Saeed.

Western diplomats in Islamabad revealed that India has claimed that one of the parliament attackers has been identified as one of the five hijackers of an Indian commercial airplane in 1999, which provoked the release of Azhar in exchange for the freedom of the plane's hostages at Kandahar in Afghanistan, where the jetliner had been forced to land.

Masood, the son of a retired schoolteacher, was arrested in 1994 by India. Full of religious zeal and passion, he opted for jihad as a young man to force India out of Muslim-dominated Kashmir, where 700,000 Indian army troops are engaged to contain separatist fighters, who accuse India of inflicting atrocities on the local population. Following his release after five years of confinement in Indian jails, Masood immediately founded the Jaish-e-Muhammad, with the single objective of a jihad in Kashmir, and he quickly became a powerful figure in the freedom movement.

Diplomats in Islamabad also believe that India has provided these details to the United States and the Great Britain. In addition, the Indian government claims to have tapped some radio communication between the Jaish activists. Pakistan says Delhi has no proof. Nonetheless, it has acted in response to US President George W Bush's telephone call to freeze the assets of the group and arrested the leaders of Jaish.

However, there is no direct or indirect reference of the involvement of the Lashker-e-Taiba in the Delhi operation. Pakistan was hoping that the detention of Masood would defuse the situation. But it was troubled when US Secretary of State Colin Powell informed President General Pervez Musharraf that India wants more concessions - action against the Lashkar, which they alleged had been involved in such acts in the past.

Hafiz Saeed resigned as head of the Lashker-e-Taiba soon after the US included it and the Ummah Tammeer-e-Nau (an organization established by retired Pakistani nuclear scientists) in a list of terrorist groups.

It was politically difficult to arrest the charismatic Saeed, who enjoys a lot of respect and influence among Pakistanis. The Lashker-e-Taiba has never been involved in sectarian violence in the country, and the group only preaches jihad. It has thousands of followers all over Pakistan and even a large number of retired army officials are among its staunch supporters.

Musharraf made the concessions of the arrests to avert war as the government is hesitant to take on India at this crucial juncture when almost 60,000 regular army and the same number of border security forces are guarding the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to block infiltrators from the Al-Qaeda network of Osama bin Laden.

Musharraf discreetly informed the United States that the entire force could be redeployed from the western frontier to eastern borders in the event of war, thereby sending some panic waves through the Pentagon and the State Department, which up to then had not taken the possibility of war too seriously. As a result, the US moved more aggressively to calm down the two sides. Pakistan accepted the Indian demands and arrested more than 50 top activists of Jaish and Lashkar.

India, which has seized the opportunity of the new global war against terrorism to settle the disputed Kashmir issue, announced that the arrest of Hafiz Saeed was a significant step forward, but demanded that 20 wanted men be turned over to Delhi.

India is copying the pattern set by the United States in Afghanistan to force Pakistan to make concessions. This may be difficult for the latter, and the standoff is likely to continue in the short term. Some analysts say that India has committed itself too much to war and that it is becoming increasingly more difficult for it to back off. It would require some form of an offer, perhaps an internationally brokered deal, for Delhi to ease off.

The current South Asian tour of British Prime Minister Tony Blair could, perhaps, provide that leeway. Pakistan and India gained independence from British India in 1947, and both term the unresolved issue of Kashmir as an unfinished agenda of the partition that divided Muslim- and Hindu-dominated areas into two new nations. The United States would support the efforts of Blair as a mediator. His visit could be followed by another high-profile US team.

In Nepal on Wednesday, ahead of the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) meeting which opens on Friday, foreign ministers of the two countries shook hands and smiled for the first time since the recent crisis. However, India kept Pakistan guessing over formal talks at the foreign minister or heads of the state level. However, diplomats believe that the tension is easing at the political level even though there has been no reversal in the hostile military build-up.

Pakistani officials are concerned over the low-intensity Indian engagement in Kashmir and Rajisthan, where the enemy positions are much stronger. Pakistan had strengthened its frontlines on the Punjab border to counterbalance this. Some military sources also revealed that Israeli army experts were helping India in arms and deployment in the Himalayan region.

Since aligning himself with the US-led coalition against terrorism, Musharraf is treading on a thin line. Pakistan gained in economic terms from the cooperation, but it now faces new realities that could radically transform its society and its foreign policy.

In a recent move, Musharraf ordered the Ministry of the Interior to review the whole madrassa (religious schools) system in the country, and the role of religious outfits, particularly of the Sipah-e-Sihaba Pakistan (SSP) and the Tehrik-e-Jafria Pakistan (TJP). The TJP is strongly backed by Iran, and any move could pour cold water on already not very warm relations between these two countries.

In another move, the Ministry of the Interior has asked all jihadi organizations to shift their operations to Kashmir and to confine all of their activities to their struggle in the Indian-held section of the valley, and refrain from any terrorist or sectarian related violence elsewhere.

Musharraf has attempted to consolidate his position among the top echelon of the army while aggressively moving against religious outfits, which could irk some powerful elements in the armed forces. Thus, too much softening of his stance vis-a-vis India could cost him dearly.

Musharraf is due to meet Chinese leaders on his way to Nepal to discuss the overall regional scene. China, a long-trusted friend, apparently does not want war in the region as it could affect Beijing's economic interests. At the same time, the Chinese would be happy to see an unwinding of religious organizations, which are causing a nuisance in Xinjiang province.

SAARC, which has been moribund for some years, could become a centerpiece in resolving regional tension at the chilly Nepalese capital of Kathmandu. Though its charter does not provide room to discuss bilateral disputes, it could offer a forum for two unwilling, reluctant and nuclear-armed neighbors to talk peace and sanity, if not friendship.

((c)2001 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact ads@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)