Asia Times: Nepal's emergency extended


	February 23, 2002	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Nepal's emergency extended - for a price
By Suman Pradhan

KATHMANDU - Now that the three-month-old state of emergency imposed in Nepal has been ratified, beleaguered Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is promising to focus his energies on social and economic reforms to face the Maoist insurgency.

That insurgency by Maoist rebels, who for the past six years have been waging a violent campaign to overthrow the constitutional monarchy in this Himalayan kingdom, is the rationale for parliament's extension of emergency rule in a vote on Thursday. In particular, Deuba wants to reduce the likelihood of unemployed youth in Nepal, 40 percent of whose 23 million people live under the poverty line, from joining radical causes such as the Maoist insurgency. Government figures put the unemployment rate at some 5 percent, but disguised unemployment in the labor force is 47 percent.

Deuba also pledged the empowerment of marginalized communities, a fight against corruption and other legal reforms.

"With the assistance of all political parties," Deuba said, "we will now concentrate on introducing the reforms in the constitution and socio-economic spheres to address all the concerns raised in parliament."

The prime minister was speaking soon after the 205-seat House of Representatives, Nepal's Lower House of parliament, ratified by 194-7 a motion seeking approval of the state of emergency in place since November. The measure's passage is a crucial victory for Deuba since the emergency can now run unfettered for another three months, as mandated by the constitution.

Parliament's approval came just days after government forces suffered heavy losses in the fight against Maoist rebels last weekend in the district of Achham, about 600 kilometers northwest of Kathmandu. Nearly 140 security personnel and five civilians were killed by rebels in the deadliest attack of the six-year-old insurgency. It had put doubts on the emergency ratification motion.

Opposition parties had demanded that the government quickly introduce new socio-economic proposals to give hope to Nepal's millions of unemployed, as well as carry out constitutional amendments enabling the formation of a all-party national government to oversee future elections.

Just before voting on the emergency took place in parliament on Thursday, Madhav Kumar Nepal, the main opposition leader and general secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), said his party would only support the ratification motion if Deuba publicly committed himself to fulfilling the demands in the ongoing session of the parliament.

In a surprising turnaround, the prime minister's own party, the ruling Nepali Congress led by former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala, also supported the opposition's call for reforms. Deuba then had no choice but to make his public commitment in parliament to get the required two-thirds vote for the ratification motion. His party has only 113 seats in the House, which is 32 less than the required two-thirds majority.

Analysts in Kathmandu believe that the government will now carry out the demanded reforms, if Deuba is to make headway against the insurgency, since security actions in the past few months have not been able to quell the unrest. "He can't shy away from it now, since he has already made a public commitment in the floor of the House," says Narayan Wagle, a political editor with the Kantipur newspaper. "He must announce new policies soon or risk the wrath of the opposition, his own party and even of the people."

For their part, Deuba's close aides say the prime minister is committed to reforms. "Let's not forget that it was he who brought ground-breaking land-reform measures last year," says Achyut Wagle, a key aide. "His approach to reforms now will be to see that no more young people join the Maoist cause due to the lack of employment. Also, the prime minister wants to make such policies that will draw the Maoists to come back into the political mainstream."

But given the climate here, that looks unlikely, at least in the near future. The rebels, who model themselves after Peru's Shining Path guerrilla movement, want to abolish Nepal's constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy and turn the country into a communist republic. But the demands have been repeatedly rejected by the government. Experts say Nepal's poverty and the lack of opportunity in rural villages are fueling the Maoist cause. Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, where per capita annual income hovers around just US$230. More than 80 percent of its people live off subsistence farming.

While much of the countryside is poor, many politicians and government officers have amassed wealth in the past decade through alleged corrupt practices, further fueling rural anger. "The Maoists simply took advantage of the genuine anger in the villages," development expert Dipak Gyawali has said.

A key measure announced by the prime minister in parliament on Thursday deals with this too. He has promised to strengthen anti-corruption bodies by giving them powers to seize ill-gotten wealth of politicians and civil servants.

But announcing policies alone is not going to solve the problems, many agree. The key is implementing those policies, and it is here that Nepal has a dismal record. "On paper, we have the best constitution, the best policies, but nothing has come out of it," opposition CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal says.

(Inter Press Service)