Asia Times: Tamils turn to the political battlefield


	March 23, 2002	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Tamils turn to the political battlefield
By Sudha Ramachandran

BANGALORE - With the formal ceasefire between the Sri Lankan government and Tamil Tiger rebels still holding, it seems possible that talks between the two sides could begin early in April.

While opposition to the ceasefire agreement from powerful sections persists, the Sri Lankan masses - both the majority Sinhalese and Tamil - seem largely to be endorsing the peace process.

That the Tamils are backing Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's peace initiative was amply demonstrated during his recent visit to Jaffna, the first by a prime minister to the troubled region in 20 years. Huge crowds lined the streets to accord Wickremesinghe a rousing and emotional welcome.

Jaffna, capital of the overwhelmingly Tamil Northern Province, was once a Tiger bastion. It fell to the Sri Lankan army in December 1995 and has remained in government hands since then.

While at Jaffna, Wickremesinghe visited a Hindu temple. His observance of Hindu rituals while there was widely appreciated by the local Tamils. Like most Sinhalese, Wickremesinghe is a Buddhist. The Tamils are mainly Hindu, although Christians and Muslim Tamils constitute a sizable section.

The Liberation Tigers for Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has been engaged in an armed struggle for a separate state of Tamil Eelam for over 19 years. Since December last year, a peace process brokered by the Norwegians is making steady progress. An informal truce between the two was replaced by a more structured ceasefire on February 24.

While opposition to the ceasefire agreement from President Chandrika Kumaratunga, sections within the People's Alliance (PA), the radical, ultra-nationalist Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) and Sinhalese hardliners is mounting, the average Sinhalese have come out in support of Wickremesinghe's peace initiative.

Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP) won a resounding victory, winning 217 of the 222 local bodies for which elections were held this week. While local election results cannot be taken as an indicator of support at the national level or on issues of national significance, the UNP's victory certainly indicates that people are not unhappy with its performance in government and its initiatives to address the conflict and to revive the economy, since it came to power in December.

As important to the positive signals of support from the Tamils and the Sinhalese masses to the peace process has been the backing that Wickremesinghe has received from the United States. A growing US role in the peace process has become increasingly evident over the past few weeks.

Last week, the United States issued a statement warning the LTTE of further international isolation unless it observed the terms of the ceasefire agreement. While wielding the stick, the US also dangled a carrot before the Tigers, saying that it would respond positively if the LTTE accepted that a separate state was both "unattainable and unnecessary", gave up terrorism and honored democratic and human-rights norms.

The LTTE has been declared a foreign terrorist organization by the US and is proscribed in several countries, including India and the United Kingdom. In fact, its international isolation and the current international mood against terrorist organizations are believed to be among the factors that prompted the Tigers to cooperate with the peace process.

Washington's unequivocal statement is not only a boost to the peace process but also to Wickremesinghe's government as it puts pressure on the LTTE to observe the terms of the ceasefire agreement.

US assistant secretary of state Christina Rocca reiterated that support to the government again early this week during her visit to the Jaffna peninsula. That the meeting between Rocca and Wickremesinghe took place in Jaffna is significant as it signaled US solidarity with the Sri Lankan government's efforts, on soil claimed by the LTTE as its territory. Besides, it was a clear signal of US support for the territorial integrity of Sri Lanka.

Later at a press conference in Colombo, Rocca, while refusing to predict what the US response would be if the Tigers pulled out of the peace process, said Washington was monitoring developments closely. Without committing herself to providing military assistance to the Sri Lankan government in the event of the Tigers walking out of the peace process, Rocca made it a point to refer to the "long history of close military cooperation" between the US and Sri Lanka.

Meanwhile, the LTTE, while continuing to observe the ceasefire, is believed to be recruiting on a large scale in the eastern district of Batticaloa. In fact, reports of forced conscription of children into its ranks continue to pour in despite criticism from the United Nations and Amnesty International. There have been reports of the Tigers continuing to receive arms consignments.

Alongside the building of its military muscle, the LTTE's mass mobilization strategy is a worrying indicator of things to come.

A "Pongu Tamil" (Tamil upsurge) movement has been launched in various towns in the Northern and Eastern provinces. Huge rallies are being organized where support for the LTTE, its leader Velupillai Prabakaran and the creation of an independent Tamil Eelam is whipped up. Significantly, cut-outs of maps of the envisaged Tamil Eelam have been displayed at these rallies.

Describing the scene in the northern town of Vavuniya, The Hindu's Colombo correspondent, Nirupama Subramanian, writes, "Slogan-shrieking schoolchildren carried placards saying, 'Our choice is LTTE, we choose Tamil Eelam' and frenzied teenagers chanted 'Our leader is Prabakaran', ordering bystanders to do the same as they marched in procession ... wardens wearing red and yellow, the colors of the LTTE, regulated the 20,000 strong crowd of townspeople as the processions converged at the stadium."

Subramanian writes that among those attending the event were members of parliament representing the Vavuniya district. "Along with the rest of the audience, they obediently raised their hands to take a pledge accepting the LTTE as the sole representative of the Tamil people, and demanded that the ban on the organization be removed."

Subramanian points out that although the ostensible organizers of the event were university students and prominent residents of the town, according to a local journalist, it is the LTTE that is the "real organizer".

While the LTTE's mass mobilization of Tamils might be a way to project itself as the sole representative of the Tamils, the aggressive rhetoric that is being articulated and the frenzied and militaristic manner in which support is being drummed up indicate that there is more to the "Pongu Tamil" movement than meets the eye.

It is significant that none of these LTTE-orchestrated rallies express support for the peace process as such or for a negotiated compromise to the conflict, indicating that the LTTE continues to view a separate state of Tamil Eelam as its goal.

The pro-peace sentiment evident in Jaffna during Wickremesinghe's visit stand in sharp contrast to the aggressive and nationalist mood that is being stirred up and projected in the east. Interestingly, support for the LTTE in the east, even among Tamils, has always been patchy.

Another aspect of the LTTE's current strategy is to weaken the Sinhalese political establishment. In the Kumaratunga-Wickremesinghe rivalry, it has jumped on to the latter's side, even suggesting that the prime minister take steps to oust the president.

In fact, an editorial in the London-based pro-LTTE publication Tamil Guardian warns that if the Wickremesinghe government does not act immediately to impeach Kumaratunga, she will strike by dissolving parliament after December, when the constitution enables her to do so.

A strategy of backing Wickremesinghe in his battle with Kumaratunga will not only worsen the situation between the two, weakening the government's hand at the negotiating table, but also it will undermine Wickremesinghe's credibility among the Sinhalese, as he will appear to have colluded with the Tigers.

The LTTE's position at the negotiating table has been weakened by the international isolation it is currently suffering. But to overcome that blow, it is crafting a strategy that will help it spring back to a position of strength ahead of and at the negotiating table.

((c)2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact ads@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)