Asia Times: Musharraf engineers a silent coup


	April 5, 2002	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Musharraf engineers a silent coup
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - On the face of it, President General Pervez Musharraf's decision to place his future in the hands of the Pakistani people is a commendable one. In reality, though, the referendum that Musharraf has called to seek approval for another five years in office without requiring him to stand for election is likely to be a farce.

On Wednesday, the cabinet and the National Security Council unanimously approved the referendum, which will be staged at a date to be announced by the president on Friday, most likely May 6.

Already Musharraf has mobilized the state apparatus to ensure that the referendum will result in him being given "approval" to lead the country beyond October this year, when his term is due to end. The Supreme Court gave Musharraf five years in which to hold legislative elections after he seized power in a bloodless coup in October 1999. The court endorsed the coup.

Under Pakistan's constitution, the head of state is elected by the two houses of parliament. The referendum, therefore, would enable Musharraf to bypass the legislature even before its members are chosen.

The United States is expected to be watching events closely (and without criticism) as Musharraf is a key US ally in the war against terrorism, and continuation of his rule would enable him to carry out his pledges to steer the country away from the Islamic extremism that has caused so much trouble not only in the country, but also in the region. Sources say that voters will be asked whether they want Musharraf to continue the war against terrorism and domestic reforms. If so, the president would remain in office for five years.

The government printing press has already been instructed to print publicity posters for the referendum campaign, and all Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) command offices in the provinces have been instructed to "fix" the referendum in Musharraf's favor as far as possible.

Since district administrations are now in the hands of elected representatives, rather than bureaucrats as they were before Musharraf introduced reforms under his devolution of power plan, these elected representatives are the main targets for the ISI to cultivate.

These representatives were elected on a non-party basis, but the majority of them come from mainstream political parties, including the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid-i-Azam (PML-QA). Except for the newly-born PML-QA, which is also known as the "king's party", all big political parties oppose the referendum. And even the PML-QA is split, with almost half of its leaders against the referendum.

The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan People's Party, the two largest political groupings in the country, have both rejected the referendum. And on Tuesday, the leaders of the main religious parties, including the Jamaat-i-Islami, the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Pakistan, the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam and others from the Shi'ite and Wahabi schools of thought, held a press conference at which they rejected the referendum and said that they would launch a campaign to unseat Musharraf. The largest religious party, the Jamaat-e-Islami, has petitioned the Supreme Court to nullify the referendum.

Lawyers across the country have come out against the referendum, with some saying that its use to extend a term of office was unconstitutional and would amount to another coup.

The government has already begun to put pressure on political parties. On Wednesday, members of the PPP were prevented from attending ceremonies to mark the 23rd anniversary of the death of their founder and late premier, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. Law enforcement agencies closed all routes to Larkana city to stop people converging at a shrine of their former leader. Many PPP members were arrested in the port city of Karachi. Sources said that these incidents are a portend of things to come as the referendum draws closer.

On the pro-referendum side, Musharraf can count on the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (led by cricketer turned politician Imran Khan) - whose secretary general and Marxist leader Meraj Mohammed Khan has kept himself apart from this support - former president Farooq Leghari's Millat Party, half of the leadership of PML-QA, covert support from the Muttehida Quami Movement and the Awami National Party, and the Sindh Democratic Alliance.

None of these groups (except for the PML-QA) has clout in district administrations, although they are all represented, and this presence will be exploited as far as possible by the ISI.

Sources say that provincial ISI command officers have been tasked with mobilizing the maximum number of voters. The referendum will not require voters to be on a voter's roll - all that will be needed is a national identity card, and these can be easily faked, with plenty of Bengali, Iranian, Afghani and other aliens ready to help out for a small "consideration".

The ISI is also believed to have committed resources to the "king's party" to help it influence voters. And several stage-managed pro-Musharraf rallies and processions will be organized by the ISI across the country, starting next week. Top ISI officials, including Major-General Ehtesham Jafery, the deputy chief of the ISI, are holding meetings in the provinces to finalize deals with sympathetic political groups.

In calling for a referendum, Musharraf is following a precedent set by Zia ul-Haq, who seized power in 1977. In 1984, Zia asked the country if it supported Islam, and if so he would remain in power to defend the faith. He won his mandate.

For many years, dictators in Pakistan have placed expediency above a code of ethics. This tradition is likely to continue in the coming months.

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