Asia Times: PYONGYANG WATCH: Dear Leader has them on the run



	August 24, 1999	atimes.com

The Koreas

PYONGYANG WATCH: Dear Leader has them on the run
By Uwe Parpart

Kim Jong-il must be getting quite a kick out of this. Never in recent memory have so many high-level South Korean, American and Japanese diplomats and emissaries scurried about the globe as busily as since May when the first evidence emerged that North Korea might be preparing for another missile launch - this time of a more advanced, longer-range version of the Taepodong that overflew Japan a year ago. Somehow or other, Dear Leader has convinced them not only that he is ready to launch, but also that they must do everything in their power to persuade him to refrain from such a heinous act.

In May, former US defense secretary and now Washington's North Korea policy coordinator William Perry visited Pyongyang to do a carrot-and-stick routine, delivering the message that either enhanced engagement or enhanced deterrence were in store, as developed in his as yet unpublished "Perry Report" specifying the Clinton administration's future North Korea policy. Following that, in early July, Perry went to Moscow to exchange views with Russian officials on the North Korea issue.

Also in early July, South Korean Foreign Affairs-Trade Minister Hong Soon-young met with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in Washington. More recently, all manner of people have conferred with North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye-gwan on missiles in Geneva on the sidelines of four-party Korea peace talks, and the pace of diplomatic travel is picking up further with separate trips to Japan, the United States, and China by three South Korean ministers responsible for national security, part of a diplomatic vanguard to defuse North Korea's missile threat. Since Sunday, Foreign Affairs-Trade Minister Hong is on an official visit to Japan to meet with government officials, including Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura. On Monday, Defense Minister Cho Sung-tae left for Beijing, becoming the first South Korean defense chief to visit China since the normalization of diplomatic ties between the two nations in 1992. Cho plans to discuss methods of military cooperation and will ask for China's help in persuading North Korea not to test-launch its missile when he meets his Chinese counterpart Chi Haotian. Also on Monday, Unification Minister Lim Dong-won headed for the United States. Lim will attend workshops and meet US experts on Korean affairs including former Ambassador to Korea Donald Gregg. During his weeklong visit, Lim will also meet William Perry in San Francisco where he is a resident scholar at Stanford University.

And if all that weren't enough to heap attention on and tickle the well-known vanity of Kim Jong-il, officials in Seoul announced August 20 that the leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan will hold a summit meeting during the September 12 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) leaders forum in New Zealand. A major topic of discussion for South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, US President Bill Clinton and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi - you guessed it - will be North Korea's missile threat. A week earlier, from September 2-4, the Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev will meet his South Korean counterpart Cho in Seoul.

Strangely, however, with all that past, present, and future running about, no-one has bothered to spell out just exactly what's so important about the much-touted North Korean test-launch and why so much frequent-traveller mileage should be accumulated in the effort to forestall it.

On one hand, we, indeed, can't help but agreeing with North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye-gwan's recent statement in Geneva that, "It's completely our sovereign right to launch or not. It is not a deal with anybody. We must possess strong means like the missile in order to protect our sovereign rights. That is our defense policy." Or with the North Korean Geneva delegation spokesman Pak Myung-guk's observation that, "Recently there was a [Chinese] missile launch in the neighborhood. They [the US] kept silent about that. Does that mean they don't fear that? Then why are they afraid of us?"

On the other hand, how large exactly is the military threat posed by one or a handful of such clearly not very reliable North Korean missiles? Presumably, the answer is that a) they could be equipped with nuclear, chemical, or biological warheads and fired at Japan or some US territories; and b) that they pose a significant proliferation threat when sold to Iran, Iraq, or Pakistan.

Neither answer holds much water. Even with existing detection and interdiction methods, one missile may go undetected, be launched and find its target. Such are the hazards of warfare, however unpalatable. Saddam Hussein's Scuds were a greater threat and did not stop allied action against Iraqi forces. But a whole bunch of Taepodongs readied for lauch would not go undetected and could (and should) be taken out by pre-emptive strike. As for missile proliferation, Pakistan and probably Iran have received North Korean missile technology as well as - in the case of Pakistan - Chinese assistance and have developed and are upgrading their own programs. That genie is long out of the bottle.

All of which leads us to the recommendation that it's high time to call Kim Jong-il's bluffs and institute the necessary deterrence countermeasures rather than continuing to give in to Pyongyang blackmail. A concerted U.S./Japan/South Korea theater missile defense effort could readily reduce the North Korean missile threat to near zero well before it matures into a substantial military capability. It appears that such action will be on the Clinton/Obuchi/Kim Dae-jung agenda when they meet during the Apec confab. A pointed announcement that such TMD action will be taken might deter a Pyongyang test launch or it might prompt it. If the latter, so be it. It won't be the end of the world.

In the meantime, engaging North Korea in peninsula peace negotiations is the proper policy. Reacting tit-for-tat to any new blackmail item Pyongyang tosses up is not.

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