Asia Times: PYONGYANG WATCH<BR> North Korea's gravy train: send medicine, not food


	October 27, 2001	atimes.com

The Koreas

PYONGYANG WATCH
North Korea's gravy train: send medicine, not food
By Aidan Foster-Carter

An earlier article drew attention to contrasting pictures of North Korea's current food outlook painted by different observers. The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) forecasts a deficit both now and indefinitely, stressing the harm to crops from successive drought and flood earlier this year.

Yet South Korea's "Dr Corn", Kim Sun-kwon, said Northern farmers he met in September were "of good countenance". (That lovely biblical phrase may reflect Professor Kim's devout Christian faith, or just be the quaint rendering of the South Korean Chosun Ilbo newspaper.) Well may they smile, since Dr Corn expects a total Northern harvest of 4 million tons, the best in years.

So who's right? One problem is careless reporting. The Chosun actually quotes Professor Kim as anticipating a rice crop of 4 million tons. That can't be right: in the DPRK's colder latitudes, the main grain is corn (maize). A more careful account, in the Chosun's rival JoongAng Ilbo, cites Professor Corn's more cautious companion on the same trip - Kim Un-geun, director of the North Korean Agriculture Research Center at the ROK's Korea Rural Economic Institute - as predicting a harvest of 3.5 million tons; and clarifying that this is the total "of this year's autumn harvest along with the barley and potato expected to be gained by next spring".

Such precision, as well as accuracy, is crucial to avoid misunderstanding. Two common ones in this field (no pun intended) are the failure to specify the exact crops and the season being discussed. Another is whether grain is weighed husked or unhusked, but we won't get into that. Do we just mean rice and maize - now the two staples, thanks to Kim Il-sung's pernicious monocultivation policy - or other grains like barley and wheat? Or indeed non-grain crops such as tubers and pulses? (Potatoes and beans, in plain English).

The crop and time issues are linked, for the obvious reason that various crops ripen at different seasons. Hence, to determine whether North Korea has enough food at a given point is not as simple as it sounds. It all depends where we are in the seasonal cycle, which in Korea is roughly main grains (rice and corn) harvested in autumn, with supplementaries - barley, wheat, potatoes etc - following in the spring. This is very over-simplified, especially now that double and even triple-cropping is being encouraged.

So when the two Professors Kim contrast their optimism with the WFP's "grim" picture, I'm not sure if they're using the same timeframe. The gloomy WFP reports mentioned in my previous article refer to the crop year just ending: specifically the 12 months through October, which essentially means last autumn's and this spring's harvest. I haven't seen detailed WFP or UN Food and Agriculture Organization predictions for the upcoming crop year just starting, which is what the two Kims are talking about. The latest available UN humanitarian situation report as I write, dated September 30, in fact says little about food at all; it mainly covers medical and other aid.

Apologies if all this hair-splitting seems rather dry. Yet it's crucial. People who think they disagree may just be at cross purposes. The old adage about "lies, damned lies, and statistics" applies too. Interrogate figures, always. The word data is literally Latin for "things given"; but as a wise sociologist said, facts are never given, they are always taken. (I used to lecture on research methods; methinks it's showing.)

Anyhow, methodologically alert readers will already have spotted a further twist. Food availability in North Korea isn't just a matter of how much they manage to grow themselves. Any shortfall can be, and to some extent is, made up for by imports or aid. So what are the prospects on that crucial front?

Pretty good, it seems. Commercially, North Korea is seeking to buy 500,000 tons of Thai rice. I use the word buy loosely: they want it on credit, despite still owing US$115 million for 400,000 tons from the mid-1990s. Bangkok wasn't having it. Yet on September 27, the Thai commerce minister told a press conference that North Korea will soon "purchase" half a million tons - but if short of cash, this could be on a barter basis. Why the change? The world's top rice exporter has a 2 million ton surplus, and wants rid of it to pay farmers.

It is the same story in Seoul, where a record rice harvest is bad news. South Koreans eat less rice every year, and farmers fear a glut will depress prices. So the opposition Grand National Party - no friend to Kim Jong-il, but mindful of rural votes - has no objection to 300,000 tons of rice going to the North (as a long-term loan, in theory). A further 300,000 tons may be sent as barter trade. Don't bet on Pyongyang paying for any of it.

As for the WFP, whose latest DPRK appeal asks for 810,000 tons of grain worth $316 million, you might expect donor fatigue to be setting in by now. Not so. As of October 9, 70 percent ($220 million) had been found or pledged. Contrast the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), whose modest $10 million program for children is only 30 percent funded - let alone the World Health Organization, which hasn't even raised the first million of $8 million needed for its vital work on health. Why the difference? The WFP gets most of its grain from the ROK and the United States. No, President George W Bush doesn't love the Dear Leader either. But the political economy of price support for mid-western farmers means that the US just keeps right on giving.

And then there's China, which has quietly given over 1 million tons since 1995, and pledged a further 200,000 when Jiang Zemin visited recently. All in all, it could be worse. If many North Koreans still go hungry, as they do, blame maldistribution or stupid policies: a story for another time. So if you're minded to give for North Korea, the urgent need is for medical aid. By comparison, the food scene looks in better shape.

Part 1: How hungry is North Korea?

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