Asia Times: The Koreas


	June 15, 2002	atimes.com

The Koreas

PYONGYANG WATCH
Slowly but surely? North-South summit, two years on
By Aidan Foster-Carter

Anniversaries have their uses, beyond the usual formalities. They offer us a chance to look up from the immediacy of often ephemeral current events and take stock: to see "the present as history", in Paul Sweezy's resonant phrase.

This time two years ago, the world's eyes were on Korea. (As they are now; but for something even more important than soccer.) After two years of patient overtures in what he called a "Sunshine Policy", South Korean President Kim Dae-jung got his breakthrough: flying to Pyongyang for the first-ever North-South summit in more than half a century since the peninsula was divided in 1945. It was all smiles. A joint declaration was signed. The North's leader Kim Jong-il, long demonized in the South, became a hero overnight - and promised a return visit. Emotions ran high.

The next few months seemed to confirm that a new era had indeed dawned, with a flowering of multi-track activity. Tearful reunions of long-separated kin were held. Work began - in the South, at least - on restoring road and rail links across the hitherto impermeable Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The North's defense minister even visited the Blue House in Seoul - and saluted Kim Dae-jung. Surely this was it, at long last. Things could only get better.

Not so, alas. In February 2001, Pyongyang froze everything in protest at the hard line of the new US administration of President George W Bush. At least that was their pretext. While a new US government clearly had to be factored in, there was and is no logical reason inter-Korean relations had to go on ice too. Insofar as this was more than just an excuse, the implication is that North Korea deep down still regards America as the boss, and South Korea as a sideshow - or a US puppet.

At the official level, the freeze has continued ever since. A couple of times - last September, this April - Seoul thought it had kick-started dialogue back into life. But on each occasion, after a couple of meetings, the North cried off again. Most recently, this Wednesday it failed to show up - without apology or explanation - for a previously agreed meeting on how to revitalize the Mount Kumgang tour business, something economically vital to Pyongyang.

Meanwhile, Northern patrol boats are again violating Southern waters. On Thursday, one intruded four miles over the line for three hours. In June 1999 - but no one is mentioning this anniversary - such behavior provoked a shootout that sank one Pyongyang boat with all hands, and crippled several more. Now, they're allowed to get away with it. Still, some are celebrating. Since official contacts were suspended, the pattern has been for Southern civic groups to do the honors with their Northern counterparts - who, unlike them, are really the government in disguise. Two hundred duly set sail for Kumgang last Tuesday. Twenty trade unionists were to follow on Thursday, for their own solidarity meeting.

Such pleasantries are not insignificant. They illustrate one lasting gain from the Sunshine Policy. The two Koreas may still be enemies (although Seoul canceled its defense white paper this year to avoid saying so) - but they are no longer strangers. State-level engagement may be in limbo - but business, non-governmental organization (NGO) and other contacts continue. On Friday, 320 supporters of the Korean Welfare Foundation, a Southern charity, were due to fly in a chartered Korean Air (KAL) plane direct to Pyongyang for a week-long visit. Their itinerary includes a KWF-funded bakery and medical facilities. The South's Kangwon province, divided by the DMZ, has a joint pine-pest control program with its Northern counterpart.

The economic dimension is crucial. A total of 650 Southern companies now do business with the North. Few have invested, and a trade volume of some US$400m (most of it really aid) is puny compared say with China and Taiwan - though it makes the South now the North's No 3 trade partner. Yet ROK (Republic of Korea) Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun claimed on Tuesday that North Korea has become as dependent on the South now as it used to be on the USSR and China in the old days. For instance, free fertilizer - this year's batch has just finished shipping - is vital to the North's harvest. Against critics who call this one-sided, Jeong insisted that North Korea is changing and becoming less hostile. He also denied that the government was being hasty, saying this is a long-term process "for our descendants".

Yes and no, I'd say. True, reunification is for the long haul. And yes, North Korea is changing. But the change is nowhere near fast enough. That's not impatience, just reality. Fertilizer alone won't feed the North, absent market reforms to revive the economy. Without reform, crisis will persist and social tensions grow - as in the worsening refugee row in China. And politically, in a grimmer post-September 11 world, Kim Jong-il really does need to move, swiftly, on at least some of the many issues that exercise the US et al. If not, exposes like the New York Times' recent article on how North Korea kills babies born in jail will strengthen calls for revolution rather than engagement.

So as ever, the ball is in Pyongyang's court. What can others do? Writing in Foreign Affairs, the US scholar Victor Cha recommends what he calls "hawk engagement". This means strict reciprocity: giving only if North Korea yields in return, and with a stick to hand in case the carrot fails. Minister Jeong's comment on dependency might be read similarly: if not under Kim Dae-jung, then by what may well be - judging by Thursday's opposition landslide in local elections - a more hardline successor, who will rule in Seoul from next February all the way through to 2008.

North Korea hates conditionality. At the United Nations World Food Summit in Rome on Wednesday, DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) Agriculture Minister Kim Chang-sik complained of donors imposing "their own values and business models". Like shut up and hand over the cash, huh? Get real, comrade. Trouble is, Kim Dae-jung's kind heart, plus a strategy of giving up-front to build confidence, has been taken by Pyongyang as a soft touch. Finding ways to make North Korea really engage, really reciprocate and really reform is the challenge. Sunshine is fine - but keep the threat of storm clouds as a backup.

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