Asia Times: Only the brave would bet on poll outcome


	November 9, 2001	atimes.com

Oceania

Only the brave would bet on poll outcome

CANBERRA - The leading opinion polls might differ on the election result, but they all agree the Labor Party is making a late surge in the final run-up to Saturday's federal election.

In the closing stages of a five-week campaign, the Morgan Bulletin has declared Labor would swoop into power with a nine-point lead. But Newspoll and AC Neilsen maintain Prime Minister John Howard will hold off his rival for a third term by a narrow margin. The test, not only for the political parties but also for the pollsters, comes Saturday.

Opposition Kim Beazley began his election campaign 13 points behind the government after the first weekend of campaigning. But Newspoll's latest survey showed Labor had closed the gap to 49 percent compared with the government's 51 percent, while AC Neilson showed 58 percent support for the coalition, compared with 42 percent for the ALP.

Poll experts suggest it has been Labor's success in returning the focus to domestic issues that is responsible for its slow but steady improvement in voter confidence.

Beazley attempted to neutralize the big issues - terrorism, bombing Afghanistan and asylum seekers - by agreeing with Howard, who streaked ahead early in the campaign on the back of the international issues.

One leading polls expert said the change of public focus to domestic issues was evident in the growing support for Labor. He predicted the election would end either with Labor scraping into government narrowly, or the coalition romping home easily.

"I think if Labor wins it will be a close election but the Liberals could win quite comfortably," said analyst Murray Goot from Macquarie University. "The range of expectations would be a very comfortable Liberal win to a narrow Labor win."

Sol Lebovic from Newspoll said at the end of August primary support for the coalition was level with Labor. "Then came the events [asylum seekers] and September 11 and we saw a major mood shift in the electorate," he told ABC. "We had the coalition, on virtually everything we measured, lift dramatically in terms of support. Satisfaction with the prime minister reached almost record levels. And since the event of late August and early September we've seen it pretty static."

Support for the coalition dropped slightly following week two of the campaign, after Labor announced its rollback plan and before the Liberal's campaign launch. But the coalition regained ground following Howard's party launch, although Labor has since closed the gap.

Head of Roy Morgan Research, Gary Morgan, defended his poll, saying his company's face-to-face interviewing was the most accurate means of assessing voting intention. But polls expert Ian McAllister from the Australian National University said the Morgan poll could not carry too much weight given other polls consistently showed the coalition ahead. He warned opinion polls were only accurate by plus or minus 1 or 2 percent.

That means the latest figures prove Saturday's federal election remains too close to call.

(Asia Pulse)