Asia Times: Mahathir faces more tests in months ahead



	January 16, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Mahathir faces more tests in months ahead
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - The latest twist in the trial ofsacked deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, along with a crucialstate election coming up, has further raised the politicaltemperature in Malaysia.

Together, they raise the stakes in the unfolding political sagathat is posing the toughest challenge to Prime Minister MahathirMohamad's 17-year-old rule.

The prosecution's sudden decision this week to amend thecorruption and sex charges against Anwar, midway through histrial, has cast a shadow on the authorities' credibility.

The decision, which means the prosecution no longer has toprove that Anwar had engaged in sodomy and other illegal sexualmisconduct, effectively lowers the prosecution's burden of proof.

This occurs at an already sensitive time for Mahathir, whoseruling coalition faces a crucial election in the state of Sabah innorth Borneo, in a few weeks' time.

The Anwar factor is likely to influence the result of both theSabah election and the general election, which must be held withinthe next 18 months.

The Sabah state government's term ends on Mar 18 and analystsexpect the state assembly to be dissolved for elections very soon.

A few analysts think Mahathir might even go for an earlygeneral election to coincide with the Sabah elections. Mahathirplans to spend three days in the state -- presumably forcampaigning -- starting Feb 18.

Without opinion polls to gauge support for the ruling BarisanNasional coalition in Kuala Lumpur, the Sabah election will be alitmus test of support for the government in Kuala Lumpur and forMahathir personally.

In the last state election in 1994, the opposition Sabah UnitedParty (PBS) edged the Barisan 25-23 in the elections for the 48-seat state assembly. The PBS' euphoria was shortlived, when amonth later, the party lost its majority after several of itsassembly members were enticed to join the Barisan.

Another defeat for Mahathir's coalition in Sabah would boostAnwar's 'reformasi' movement, launched soon after his ouster lastSeptember, and send alarm bells ringing in Kuala Lumpur.

Analysts are still debating if Mahathir's recent move to handover to loyalists the control of two key Cabinet portfolios -- thehome affairs ministry and the finance ministry -- has strengthenedhis hand or weakened it.

Giving up the home affairs ministry was a concession to rightsgroups, which have been severely critical of police brutality inrecent months. On the other hand, handing over the finance brief to close allyDaim Zainuddin strengthens the premier's grip on economic policy.

But, whatever his position, Mahathir now has more free time toplunge into all-out campaigning for the Barisan in the run-up tothe general election.

He has his work cut out for him. The PBS, headed by formerchief minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan, has tremendous supportamong ethnic Kadazans in Sabah, while Mahathir's coalition willrely on Muslim votes.

Ironically, it was Anwar who cultivated links with Muslims inthe state on behalf of Mahathir's United Malays NationalOrganisation, the dominant component party of the Barisan. Thus,Mahathir cannot take the Muslim votes for granted.

Much will also depend on which way the minority ethnic Chinesecast their votes.

Meantime, Anwar's case will continue to haunt Mahathir. To manyMalaysians, the prosecutors' decision to amend the chargesindicates they have an uphill task in trying to prove theallegations of sexual misconduct against Anwar.

To them, the amended charges now mean the prosecution merelyhas to show that Anwar was guilty of corrupt practices in tryingto stop police investigations into the allegations against him,regardless of whether he was actually involved in sexualmisconduct or not.

This latest twist in the trial has cast a long shadow overMahathir's claim in September that he was justified in dismissinghis deputy on moral grounds.

''After the sacking of Anwar, the Prime Minister claimed thathe possessed conclusive evidence that Anwar was a sodomist and hadcommitted the crime of unnatural sexual acts,'' noted Tian Chua,the chairperson of the newly formed Coalition for People'sDemocracy (Gagasan) in a statement.

Now, one wonders whether the police or the investigators havemisled the prime minister, he said.

''The prejudicial attitude of Dr Mahathir has caused enormousagony and injury to many, including Datuk Seri Anwar, his familymembers and members of the public,'' Chua complained. That isunlikely to be easily forgiven by the ethnic Malays, who make upabout half the population and who look to Anwar as an enlightenedMuslim leader.

Many are also disturbed by the authorities' failure to chargethose responsible for inflicting a black eye on Anwar while he wasin police custody despite the Attorney General's admission thatpolice -- who come under the Home Ministry then headed by Mahathir --were fully responsible for Anwar's injuries.

Anwar's lawyers are trying to have the prime minister summonedas a defence witness in the trial, which is expected to drag on atleast until June. The defence also intends to call Daim and otherMahathir allies whom Anwar claims conspired to topple him.

But even without out, Anwar's case has already exposed thegovernment to unprecedented scrutiny.

''It is suddenly unsettling for me to realise that Anwar's casemay not be about morality, the PM's prerogative, or the nationalinterest,'' wrote political scientist Saliha Hassan in a recentcommentary, ''(and) that it may be, as rumoured, a conspiracy toprotect vested interests which don't represent the best interestof ordinary Malaysians."

Activists hope Malaysians will rally around a common reformistplatform.

''If we do not stand up for and be counted now in defence ofour democratic rights and freedoms as Malaysians, then we deserveto become the dupes and lackeys of an authoritarian state whichwill do all the thinking for us,'' said political commentator D.J. Muzaffar Tate.

(Inter Press Service)

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©1999 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.