Asia Times: Megawati walks political minefield



	July 09, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Megawati walks political minefield
By Kafil Yamin

JAKARTA - Megawati Sukarnoputri may be the maincontender in Indonesia's presidential race, but she facesobstacles such as Islamic groups wary of her secular backgroundand about having a woman at the country's helm. A month after the Jun 7 election, Megawati's IndonesiaDemocratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) is winning by a plurality of 35percent of the vote. Official results are expected by the thirdweek of July. But to her supporters, Megawati has already won more than justvotes.

Last week, Megawati's supporters in Surabaya, East Java,pricked their thumbs to pledge support for the daughterof Indonesia's founding father Sukarno. ''These bloody thumb printsare our pledge for death to support Megawati for president,'' saidPermadi, a soothsayer who took part in the ceremony. Similar ceremonies were reported in other areas as well, evenas political maneuverings aimed at blocking a successful run byMegawati to the presidential post - even if her party leadsParliament - are underway.

Some Islamic parties that see Megawati and her party as asecular political force, unfit to lead the world's most populousMuslim country, prefer - for what they say are religious reasons - to maintain the status quo representedby Habibie. The United Development Party (PPP), now ranking fourth inballot count, has set its own criteria for presidential candidate:''It should be the nation's best son and a Muslim."

''We will not compromise on this matter,'' said Alimarwan, PPPsecretary general, after a party leaders' meeting in Jakarta lastweek. Although the party has asserted that it will neither nominatenor support Habibie, its youth wing organisation, Gerakan PemudaKa'bah (Ka'bah youth movement) threw its support behind Habibie.

To some other Muslim groups, a Megawati presidency could wellbe the return of a nightmare. ''Her father dissolved Masyumi [the then largest andinfluential Muslim party] in a blatant and arbitrary way. Now, shehas non-Muslim legislative candidates dominating her list,'' saidAndi Akram, a student of Muslim University of Indonesia (UMI).

This sentiment highlights fears among some Indonesians that sheis not as dedicated to religious considerations as other politicalfigures, but yet others see her efforts to get supporters fromvaried groups as a plus. Muslim modernists say they do not share the United DevelopmentParty's views about a male Muslim being the only possible leaderfor Indonesia.

''Islam does not judge human being on gender, but on thequality of their personality and integrity,'' said Ahmad SyafiiMa'arif, chairman of the second-largest Muslim organisationMuhammadiyah. ''I would support any candidate - be it a man, a woman oreven a gay person - as the person has quality,'' he added.

Megawati's chance at the presidency - which is to be determined bythe vote of 700-member People's Consultative Assembly in November -is far from secure yet. For instance, Islamic parties that earned seats at the House inthis election are taking a common stand to combat her candidacy. Theyare the PPP, Justice Party (PK), Crescent-Star Party (PBB) andtheir smaller allies, which together are expected to get 12percent of the House seats.

There is also the likelihood of a deadlock in the presidentialelection as Golkar, the ruling party led by Suharto in the past,is closing in on runaway poll leader Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle, which has gained 139 House seats. Golkar has been able to count on its dominance in provincesoutside Java. Megawati's PDI-Struggle reigned supreme in only 11provinces, four of them on highly populated Java.

The Golkar-dominated provinces count for 123 House seatsaltogether, almost one-third of the 462 seats up for grabs in theJune election. The military, whose members do not vote, isallocated 38 seats. Golkar could earn half of the seats at stake in the 13provinces to turn the tables on the PDI-P, if the latter finishesempty-handed in those areas.

Already, the ruling party's large gain poses a dilemma for''reformist'' parties. Since there no single majority, they willhave to form a coalition not just for their political agenda buton a choice for presidential candidate. Golkar's influence meansit cannot be excluded from such coalition.

Earlier, there was agreement among ''reformist'' parties - PDI-P, National Mandate Party (PAN) and National Awakening Party (PKB) -to prevent Golkar from maintaining power. The accord was expected to lead to a coalition among them on apresidential candidate, but such hopes were dashed as some Muslimclerics in the PKB objected to the idea of a woman president.

Analysts have begun to expect a deadlock in efforts to form acoalition, prompting some to float the possibility of a third and''unexpected'' figure coming up. Some have suggested Amien Rais, chairman of the NationalMandate Party (PAN). But ''he does not have a clear personalityand integrity,'' commented a student activist. ''On one hand, hewants to establish an open and non-sectarian party. On the otherhand, he is clearly using religious issues to lure Muslimconstituents.'' Rais was several times reported to have had meetings withGolkar officials, raising suspicions that he wanted to coalescewith the ruling party.

Some say a stalemate could prompt the military to act. ArmedForces Chief and Defense Minister General Wiranto asserted over theweekend that the military cannot be neutral in this crucialmatter. ''The presidential election is just too vital to let it go. Itshapes the future of the nation. And we should make a choice,'' hesaid without mentioning a name.

Andi Mallarangeng, a member of the National ElectoralCommission, says the military can act as a ''swing party'' in theend. The military can support Megawati, ''but if good wind is notblowing for her, it is the one that will crush her,'' he said.

Megawati's mettle is already being tested; aminister has accused her of embracing ''another religion."

(Inter Press Service)

back to the top

©1999 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.

Southeast Asia Sex News | Asian Sex Gazette