Asia Times: EDITORIAL: Now, that's NOT smart, Mr. President



	July 27, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

EDITORIAL: Now, that's NOT smart, Mr. President

On Saturday, Indonesian President B.J. Habibie told Japanese business daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun that he ruled out a coalition with Megawati Sukarnoputri, whose party won the most votes (33 percent to 22 percent for Habibie's Golkar party) in the June 7 parliamentary elections. Negotiating a coalition with Megawati would "not be a democratic way," he said. Instead, the new president should be elected by a vote of the People's Consultative Assembly.

Well, that certainly reflects an understanding of democracy that's new to us - and it's a stance that, if adhered to, will likely deprive Indonesia of optimal future rule to boot.

First off, why on earth should forming a coalition in advance of the November vote in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) be undemocratic? That sort of thing is normal democratic practice everywhere; what peculiar Indonesian twist should make it something different or unsavory there?

We assume that Mr. Habibie and his cohorts have done some calculations over the past several weeks as the June 7 vote was being tallied and figure that, if 38 un-elected, military-appointed members of the new parliament, a majority of the 200 unelected regional and social group representatives to be appointed to the MPR, and new members of parliament with orthodox (or militant) Muslim affilations vote for him in November, he can win and need not seek an accommodation with Megawati.

Even that, of course, would not be undemocratic under Indonesia's constitution which provides for the presidential poll to be conducted among the 462 newly elected MPs and 238 military and other representatives sitting in joint session. But it surely would give the APPEARANCE of less than transparent backroom deals having led to the election of the new president and in disregard for the outcome of the June 7 popular vote.

So, Habibie talks "no coalition" and meanwhile tries his damnedest to coalesce the forces that will elect him. Aside from the underhandedness of it all, it has the clear chance of reigniting social and political unrest should it succeed.

And that's not all. Were Habibie, who also told the Nikkei daily "I am ambitious to make my country a modern society," to be elected by a conservative grouping (not COALITION, of course) of Golkar old hands, the military, and Muslims unhappy with the idea of a woman president, he could almost certainly write off those ambitions. He would be captive to the very forces that had been the mainstay of the discredited Suharto "New Order".

Megawati, meanwhile, as we have cautioned in these pages previously, is no great reformer and modernizer or particularly inspired political leader. To date, she has said and done little or nothing that could convince anyone that she and her party have the wherewithal to pull Indonesia out of its economic, social and political morass. There can be little doubt that a combination of the experience of the Habibie forces and the reform drive of the Megawati and PDI-P supporters holds the best hope for Indonesia's future.

On Saturday, a day before mass prayer meetings for national unity in Jakarta and Surabaya organized by Nahdlatul Ulama, the country's largest Muslim organization led by Abdurrachman Wahid ("Gus Dur"), four Muslim parties (including Amien Rais' National Mandate Party) met to discuss formation of a "third force". The term signifies the determination of the organizers to establish a Muslim voice in the political scene dominated by the secular Golkar and PDI-P parties and to gain some bargaining power in the run-up to November. So, whether Habibie likes it or not, coalition politics will dominate the coming three to four months.

To further complicate the situation, Gus Dur's Nahdlatul Ulama-based National Awakening Party did not participate in the Saturday confab. Gus Dur favors Megawati for president and, in turn, is himself favored by third force leaders Amien Rais and Hamzah Haz for the position.

Though all quite democratic, those are silly and fruitless games, more likely to confuse things and divert attention from the urgent economic issues in need of resolution. In a predominantly Muslim country, there is no pressing need for Muslim voices as such to be heard. And to be heard saying WHAT exactly?

But there IS a pressing need for the type of issues to be addressed that will arise at the ongoing Paris meeting of the multinational Consultative Group on Indonesia that is negotiating the disposal of and conditions for extension of the country's foreign debt. There IS a pressing need to get on with bank and corporate restructuring. There IS a pressing need to formulate economic and social policy directions that will define Indonesia's future.

For those pressing reasons, Habibie should give up his double talk, enter formally into coalition negotiations with Megawati, and develop coalition accords on how to move the country forward that could give voters the confidence that the votes they cast on June 7 had the meaning most of them intended: that something lasting and viable will be built on the wreckage Suharto's "New Order" left behind.

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©1999 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.

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