Asia Times: Australian troops set for Timor



	July 30, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Australian troops set for Timor
By Sonny Inbaraj

DARWIN, Australia - The United Nations, which has just delayed to August 30 a referendum on East Timor's future, is expected to ask Australia to form the core of an armed UN peacekeeping force if the territory votes for independence from Indonesia.

The UN has delayed the vote amid concerns that the security situation in East Timor is not conducive to a free and fair ballot. Originally, the plebiscite was scheduled for August 8, and was later changed to August 21 or 22.

As the East Timor vote nears, Australia has put in place contingency plans in line with on-the-ground assessments that the most likely outcome is independence. Likewise, leaked Indonesian documents indicate that after an independence vote Indonesian-supported paramilitaries could resort to a "scorched-earth" policy when withdrawing to neighboring West Timor.

Australian defense sources told the Melbourne Age newspaper that under strategies discussed by the government, Australian and New Zealand troops are expected to form a "nucleus of expertise" for any East Timor force at the UN's request. Other Pacific and Asian countries - such as Fiji, Malaysia and possibly Thailand - would be asked to contribute the bulk of the ground troops for the force.

"The majority of observers think that the vote would be in favor of independence, though you cannot rule out that the intimidation and violent tactics carried out by the militia for the past three months might have eroded the vote somewhat," said Alan Dupont, director at the Australian National University's Strategic and Defense Studies Center in Canberra. "But most people would still expect the result to be in favor of independence.

"After the ballot, [if] Indonesia no longer has jurisdiction over East Timor, that is the time the UN force becomes critical because you'll need to maintain security in a fairly lengthy transition period before a new East Timor government comes into play."

Also of concern to Dupont is the hiatus of at least two months before the Indonesian People's Consultative Assembly can vote to formally cut ties with East Timor if the independence vote is carried.

"Most of the focus now is on what happens after the August 30 ballot," Dupont continued. "There is a two-month period after the ballot before the Indonesian parliament votes on the result, and the first question to be asked is, who's going to be responsible for security during that difficult period, assuming that the vote goes in favor of independence."

According to a secret Indonesian government report leaked recently, there is a strong likelihood that a sharp increase in violence will accompany a result favoring independence. The document dated July 3 and signed by H.R. Garnadi, special assistant to General Feisal Tandjung, coordinating minister of politics and security, calls on the Indonesian government to confirm its commitment to the militias by "empowering the pro-integration forces."

The document calls on Jakarta to prepare West Timor for a huge influx of pro-integrationists and their supporters, and instructs the paramilitaries to destroy vital facilities during their withdrawal.

Earlier this week the Australian media, quoting diplomatic and church sources, warned that 400 to 500 assault rifles, grenades and mortars are being held in various Kodim (Indonesian military district command) posts along the West Timor frontier, ready to be handed out to the militias.

The Melbourne Age reported Thursday that the Australian Army First Brigade - a 2,800-strong readily deployable unit based in Darwin - would contribute heavily to a UN deployment in East Timor.

Quoting Australian defense sources, the Age also reported that while the United States, Britain, Portugal and other European Union countries may have logistic input into any UN military operation, it has been made clear to Australia these countries would be unable, or unwilling, to contribute troops.

On Friday, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer will be in East Timor for the first ever visit by an Australian cabinet minister. Downer will talk to UN representatives involved in preparing for the ballot and meet community leaders who have called for an end to political violence.

Activists want Downer to be more pro-active with regard to the troubled territory. "We call on Downer, visiting East Timor this weekend, to ensure that Australia offers to the UN troops that will go in before the poll," urged Bob Wesley-Smith of Australians for a Free East Timor. It will be too late to go in if Jakarta-sponsored militia violence breaks out in a massive way before the arrival of troops. "Strategically it would pose a big headache, with the huge loss of innocent Timorese lives," Wesley-Smith said.

Hours before the UN announced the referendum delay on Wednesday, Nobel laureate and East Timorese leader Jose Ramos Horta said in Manila: "The conditions simply do not exist for a truly genuine, democratic ballot to take place. It would be a total fraud, a fraud against the people of East Timor and the international community."

The Dili-based Yayasan Hak (Foundation for Legal and Human Rights) noted in a report this week that while security in the capital had improved in recent months, "in remote areas terror and intimidation still persist. Violence committed by the Indonesian military, police, local government officials and militia has forced tens of thousands of people to leave their villages. In several areas, the local population who were terrorized and intimidated fled to the mountains or forest areas."

On Tuesday, UN secretary general Kofi Annan himself said that "intimidation by armed militia groups remains particularly prevalent in the western districts of East Timor."

(Inter Press Service)

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