Asia Times: Mahathir warns the West



	October 08, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Mahathir warns the West
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
October 7, 1999

Summary:

Malaysian opposition parties have criticized recent comments by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, accusing him of being a traitor in seeking the support of foreigners in the upcoming elections. Mahathir warned Westerners on September 28 that foreign support for the opposition would lead to disunity and an unfavorable environment for foreign investment. Rather than marking a step to gain Western support, Mahathir's comments are indicative of worries about the upcoming elections, and could be preparing the West for a potential crackdown on the opposition.

Analysis:

Malaysian opposition leaders responded to recent comments by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in the October 5 Straits Times, accusing Mahathir of double-talk and of betraying Malaysia's sovereignty. On September 28, Mahathir had told businessmen and politicians in New York that foreigners should consider the options before choosing who to support in the upcoming elections. He offered Westerners two choices: the time-tested, modern, liberal National Front (Barisan National - BN), led by his United Malay National Organization (Umno), or the loose opposition coalition, dominated by the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS), which he said was ''noted for misusing and misinterpreting Islam to its political advantage''.

Reinforcing his warning of possible instability, Mahathir added, ''While there are hordes of Malaysians who are eager to be in the vanguard of IT and the multimedia age, there are also quite a number who believe television sets should be thrown into the river because they are instruments of Satan.'' Mahathir argued that if the opposition won the next parliamentary elections, disunity would follow, making foreign investment in Malaysia less attractive.

The deputy president of the National Justice Party suggested that by going to the Americans for support, Mahathir was undermining Malaysian sovereignty, as well as undermining his earlier accusations that the opposition was a tool of foreign powers. Mahathir denied seeking foreign support for the BN coalition.

His comments were not aimed at support, but at cautioning the foreign audience against the opposition's unpredictability while preparing the West to accept any actions he might deem necessary to maintain stability. In addition, his comments suggest an uncertainty about maintaining the majority in the upcoming elections.

Mahathir faces a serious difficulty in choosing the date for the next parliamentary elections which will give him the best chance to maintain a two-thirds majority for his ruling coalition. Malaysian law requires the election to be held by mid-2000. However, the dismissal of his former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in September 1998, left Mahathir without a clear successor. This, among other things, has kept Mahathir from calling the elections.

While Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was appointed deputy prime minister in January 1999, Mahathir has not had enough time to groom him for the role of prime minister. This is why Mahathir suggested he remain prime minister for another full term.

Of even greater concern to Mahathir, however, is whether the BN, whose support base is divided over the issue of Anwar, can soundly defeat the new opposition Alternative Front coalition. While internal squabbles and disorganization make the Alternative Front unlikely to defeat the BN, they may draw enough support to block the two-thirds majority required of the ruling coalition.

With the opposition coalition, despite its lack of clear organization, threatening to create a divided government, Mahathir must guarantee Malaysia continues along his chosen path. By going to foreign businessmen and politicians, Mahathir warned that the opposition, despite its calls for democracy and freedom, does not necessarily represent the best choice for Malaysia's new leadership.

However, in order to ensure that the opposition does not win, or even gain enough seats to threaten the authority of the BN, Mahathir may have to take some actions to further weaken the opposition. What he said to the West is that whatever steps he takes - from undermining foreign funding and coordination to arrests and other forms of repression - he is doing it for the stability of Malaysia. And a stable Malaysia is good for the region, as well as for foreign investments.

(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.

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