Asia Times: Mahathir gambles with watershed elections



	November 11, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Mahathir gambles with watershed elections
By Anil Netto

KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has taken a political gamble by calling an early general election, likely to be held within the month and expected to be the most bitterly contested in recent times.

The poll could well herald far-reaching changes in the country's political landscape, after 44 years of dominance by successive ruling coalitions led by the United Malays National Organization (Umno).

The speaker of Parliament formally announced on Wednesday that Parliament will be dissolved on Thursday to pave the way for the country's 10th general election. The Election Commission said it will announce the dates for nominations and polling on Friday, while political circles suggested November 27 as the likely polling day. Under the law, elections must be held within 60 days from the dissolution of Parliament. Nomination day - the date politicians formally register as candidates for parliamentary and state assembly seats - is likely to be within a week.

If recent history is any guide, the Election Commission is likely to allow only a short campaign period of fewer than 10 days after nomination day. This is too short for many critics and independent observers, who cite the ruling coalition's stranglehold on the media as a constraint in campaigning.

The government's term was not due to expire until June 6, but Mahathir appears only too aware of the uncertainty and risks involved in seeing the full term through.

The weeks ahead promise Malaysia's most heated political season. Mahathir's ousted deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, now jailed and on trial, has turned into a potent political rival, inspiring ideologically disparate opposition parties to unite in a coalition known as Barisan Alternatif (Alternative Front).

The new group was born out of the same ''reformasi'' phenomenon that spilled over from neighboring Indonesia last year, where it eventually led to the demise of Suharto. Barisan Alternatif believes it has a chance to challenge the decades-long grip on power by the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition.

Several factors may explain why Mahathir preferred to hold the polls now rather than sit out the government's five-year term.

If the elections are held after January, some 680,000 new voters, who registered to vote in April and May this year, would have been eligible to vote. These new voters, many of whom registered after becoming disgruntled with the premier's treatment of Anwar, are unlikely to be sympathetic toward Mahathir, political analysts say.

''We expected the PM would call an election before the end of November to avoid the new voters, the economy becoming more problematic and factional infighting within Barisan Nasional,'' said Tian Chua, vice-president of the National Justice Party led by Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Anwar's wife.

But a smiling Mahathir, flanked by Barisan Nasional party leaders, dismissed such talk. ''I have no reason to avoid anything,'' he told a media conference, and confidently asserted that the Barisan Nasional will retain its two-thirds parliamentary majority.

When reporters asked him when he planned to retire, the 73-year-old premier replied: ''I am going to retire some day.'' He refused to be drawn into saying that this would be his last election. ''I can plan things but the disposal of the plan is not mine to determine,'' he said.

Many analysts believe the ruling coalition will not be able to match its outstanding performance in 1995, when it swept aside the opposition (except in Kelantan state) for a five-sixths parliamentary majority by grabbing two-thirds of the popular vote. This time, analysts expect the Barisan Alternatif to make key inroads in the east coast states of Kelantan, ruled by the opposition Islamic Party, and Terengganu as well as in the northern states of Perlis, Kedah and Penang. In the south, the states of Malacca and Negri Sembilan could see opposition advances.

On the economic front, the recovery has looked patchy. The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, often seen as a barometer of public confidence in government, has been listless. The key Composite Index is hovering around 700 to 800 - still way off the highs recorded during the boom years. The restructuring of the banking system, which has already cost 40 billion ringgit ($10.5 billion) continues to weigh on the economy.

In recent weeks, the Barisan Alternatif has been going on the offensive, sealing its unity in October by issuing its own national budget and a single manifesto for all the main opposition parties. The Barisan Alternatif also recently agreed on Anwar as their candidate for prime minister, defusing a potential source of disagreement.

The opposition has been busy campaigning for public support. At an opposition rally in Penang on Tuesday night, for instance, about 7,000 people crammed into a tiny village on the coast to listen to speakers from the Barisan Alternatif parties.

Despite his upbeat disposition at the media conference, Mahathir sounded an ominous note, warning of possible disturbances during the election campaign. ''We appeal to the people to be calm,'' he said. He warned that the opposition parties ''would try to create riots'' if they felt that they could not win. They would then say the elections were unfair, he added. ''We have already predicted this.''

Opposition parties argue that they have no reason to create trouble, saying the only reason for unrest would be if ruling coalition parties feel their grip on power loosening.

(Inter Press Service)

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©1999 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.