Asia Times: Mahathir Secures Fresh Mandate



	December 1, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Mahathir's victory is not so sweet
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - Malaysia's ruling coalition achieved its target of a two-thirds parliamentary majority in Monday's general elections, but a noticeable swing among Malays toward the opposition dampened the Barisan Nasional's celebrations and is likely to significantly change the country's political landscape.

The ruling coalition won 148 seats in the 193-seat Parliament against the opposition's 45. Nationwide, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's dominant United Malays National Organization lost a clutch of seats to the Parti Se-Islam Malaysia (PAS), which also convincingly recaptured northern Kelantan state and toppled the Barisan Nasional in neighboring Terengganu state.

PAS increased its share of parliamentary seats from eight to 27 and penetrated Mahathir's home state of Kedah, winning a third of the state assembly seats there.

But the poorer than expected performance of opposition parties such as the new National Justice Party (keADILan) of ousted deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim and the Democratic Action Party, the largest opposition party when Parliament was dissolved for the polls, is likely to spur much soul-searching.

Though this might seem like victory as usual for Mahathir, who has ruled for 18 years, the loss of oil-rich Terengganu state is a severe blow.

It provides PAS with a source of revenue from oil royalties to fund its activities and secure its base in the northern states while cutting across in a pincer-like movement to the south along the west coast through Kedah, Perak and Selangor states and along the east coast through Pahang - states which saw PAS's influence creeping in.

Mahathir relied heavily on the Malay-majority southern states in the peninsula such as Negri Sembilan and Johor, Umno's traditional base, where the Barisan Nasional whitewashed the opposition. The Barisan Nasional also grabbed most of the 48 parliamentary seats at stake in the north Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak.

What let down the reformasi movement inspired by Anwar's sacking was the shift in ethnic Chinese votes to the Barisan Nasional. The noticeable swing among disillusioned Malay voters away from Umno to the opposition was ultimately not big enough to compensate for the swing among Chinese voters to the ruling coalition.

''The Chinese have become purely pragmatic voters,'' says political analyst Maznah Mohamad. ''They have lost the idealism they used to have. There was not enough of a sea-change among the Malays to compensate for the Chinese swing except in the Islamic heartland (Kelantan and Terengganu). In the Islamic heartland, the change has been progressive. It has been going on for some time since 1990 (when PAS captured Kelantan from the ruling coalition).'' The Anwar crisis had given the opposition in these states a big boost, adds Maznah.

In the Klang valley, where the capital Kuala Lumpur is situated, there was a big shift toward keADILan. Although key keADILan leaders such as deputy president Chandra Muzaffar and Anwar's lawyer Zainur Zakaria failed to enter Parliament, they sharply reduced the previous huge majorities of their opponents, losing by slim margins.

''I think keADILan should now focus on specific regions,'' suggests Maznah. ''Their best bet is to concentrate on the Klang Valley.'' That was the site of huge anti-Mahathir demonstrations late last year. ''This is the area of the new, younger middle class and keADILan has a lot of potential there. That's where their niche is.''

Despite winning, the Barisan Nasional and Umno have to answer some searching questions. First, it has to deal with the succession issue, with no clear favorite to succeed the 73-year-old Mahathir. ''There will be a power struggle within Umno between the southern states (where Umno beat the opposition) and the northern states (which swung toward PAS). I predict there will be that kind of tussle,'' says Maznah.

Significantly, both Mahathir and his deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, are from northern states, where the opposition cut into traditional Barisan Nasional strongholds.

What now for ''reformasi''? Ultimately, it was the non-Malays who let down the fledgling movement. ''The Malays seem to feel more for social values such as justice compared to the pragmatism displayed by the Indians and Chinese, who really haven't grown out of their immigrant mentality,'' says economist Subramaniam Pillay.

Ironically, the largely non-Muslim non-Malays, many of whom voted for the Barisan Nasional to stave off an Islamic state, will now have to deal with the fact that the Islamic PAS is now the largest opposition party in Parliament, displacing the Chinese-based DAP, whose key leaders including Parliamentary opposition leader Lim Kit Siang, lost their seats. PAS will not be counterbalanced by more secular forces in the opposition and could challenge Umno's Islamic credentials.

Indeed, the political landscape has now changed perhaps irreversibly with the opposition largely dominated by Muslims for the first time. It will be a test of the ideals and stamina of the leaders in keADILan (five parliamentary seats) and DAP (10 seats) to keep the spirit of the Alternative Front and reformasi alive for another five years in the face of a resurgent PAS and a wounded Umno.

(Asia Pulse)

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©1999 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.