Asia Times: Asian bloc lacks only a transforming spark



	December 1, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Asian bloc lacks only a transforming spark
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
November 30, 1999

Summary:

While much of the West's attention is focused on the meeting of the World Trade Organization in Seattle, the informal summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) ended on November 28. In its wake, much of Asia is attempting an unprecedented level of regional coordination. China, South Korea and Japan also attended. Shortly after the meeting, China even made a surprising concession. The region still has a long way to go. What keeps today's loose association of Asian countries from acting as a concerted bloc of Asian nations is a lack of unified purpose. The region only needs a spark - a compelling reason - to transform itself.

Analysis:

Asean concluded its informal summit in Manila on November 28. Along with the leadership of the 10 members of Asean, the leaders of China, South Korea and Japan attended. At the meeting, Asia pressed an unprecedented drive toward greater regional cooperation. Needing to export beyond its own region, Asia is attempting to fashion itself into a bloc that can effectively compete against both the United States and the European Union.

For the first time, Asean is considering establishing a permanent troika of member nations that will take the lead in dealing with urgent economic and security crises. Though the details are still vague, ministers from three nations would take initial responsibility for containing rapidly emerging trouble spots and dangers. Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam are reported to be likely candidates for leadership of the troika. Asean has experimented with a triad just once before, in dealing with Cambodia.

At the Manila meeting, Asean also accelerated its move toward free trade among its founding members, shifting the deadline forward from 2015 to 2010. The free trade area would do away with tariffs between the region's six founding members: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Brunei. The four newest members - Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia - also would speed up the process. They would drive their own deadlines forward by three years - from 2018 - to eliminate tariffs.

Both moves signal that Asia is moving with greater urgency toward regional cooperation and even behavior as a cohesive economic bloc. Both initiatives were approved unanimously. The discussion of a troika demonstrates that the region is moving away from its decidedly non-interventionist policy, which has precluded the region from interfering in any one nation's matters. The recent crisis in East Timor caught the region flat-footed. Without a cohesive regional response, the West rushed in to fill the vacuum in Timor. Accelerating the timetable for lifting tariffs suggests that Asia is also anxious to find some way to spark a larger economic recovery, while offsetting the influence of the West.

In the wake of the Manila meetings, China has also made a significant gesture toward the region. At the summit, the Chinese delegation refused to sign a code of conduct that would have halted any new occupations of the contested Spratly Islands. But shortly afterward, Beijing made a surprise announcement on November 29, saying that it would agree to joint development of the islands. Beijing has not laid aside its claim of sovereignty, but the Chinese are attempting to drive regional cooperation forward, even in the face of an important security dispute.

But Asia is still hedging its bets by postponing important decisions. Revealing its remaining reluctance, Asean has put forth its traditionally Western-oriented members for the troika. They would not just deal with possible crises but also the resultant Western pressures to resolve those crises. Asean also studiously avoided a clear definition of how this triumvirate would work, declaring that such specifics are unnecessary until an emergency actually arises. The movement toward a free trade area, as well, doesn't solve the region's most pressing problem. Its economies cannot afford merely to continue swapping exports among themselves.

Beyond Asean, the larger region must overcome - or put aside - far more significant barriers to become a viable bloc. In particular, the security concerns of Northeast Asia will continue to pit one player against another. China's increasingly warm relations with North Korea will continue to harm more substantial ties with Japan and South Korea. The South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo reported on November 25 that China had just sold North Korea ''massive'' quantities of military equipment.

Asia is now at a critical juncture. Increasingly, economic necessity propels the region toward greater cooperation. The region must find a way to counter the power and influence of the United States and Europe. Yet the speed with which Asian nations move toward one another is constrained by traditional security disputes and divisions.

More than anything, Asia ultimately lacks a compelling reason to present a unified front to the rest of the world. Blocs form in reaction to threats. They did so at the end of World War II when the United States and the Soviet Union shaped their initial, respective alliances - and then re-shaped them throughout the Cold War in response to differing threats around the world.

All that is now missing from Asia's economic and political equation is a threat or, at the very least, a catalytic event. Two examples present themselves. A truly regional emergency, such as a currency crisis, might be such an event. Or if Aceh erupted into full rebellion and threatened to finally unravel Indonesia, the region would be forced to adopt a common stance. Asean even went so far at the summit as to issue a statement expressing ''full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Indonesia''.

(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/

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