Asia Times: Dark horse spells trouble for Mahathir



	February 8, 2000	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Dark horse spells trouble for Mahathir
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - He once took on the most powerful man in the country in a bitter, divisive fight for the leadership of Malaysia's largest political party - and nearly won. Now, 13 years later, Razaleigh Hamzah is again lurking in the shadows in the run-up to the May 11 elections to be held by the United Malays National Organization (Umno), the party led by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and the dominant force in the ruling coalition.

Speculation is mounting that the 63-year-old former finance minister could once again challenge Mahathir for the party leadership. Either that, or Razaleigh could contest deputy premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi for the vacant post of Umno deputy president.

Umno party polls are watched as closely as general elections, since in Malaysia the leader of Umno is traditionally also the prime minister.

Razaleigh, also known as 'Ku Li', has not ruled out a leadership challenge, although he has dismissed talk that he had been nominated to contest the triennial Umno polls. When asked if he would accept nomination by any party division, he replied that branch meetings had just begun - ''I cannot say what will happen later.''

Few believe he will sit out the election. An Internet poll conducted by the independent cyberpaper Malaysiakini reveals that more than 60 percent of some 1,000 respondents think Razaleigh will make a bid for the Umno presidency. Another 20-odd percent expect him to gun for the deputy presidency.

Though the reliability of Internet polls is questionable, the cybersurvey does show that many observers expect Razaleigh to make a move soon. He is, after all, a veteran of such attempts. First appointed Umno vice-president in 1974, Razaleigh twice unsuccessfully vied for the party's deputy presidency in the 1980s before taking on Mahathir for the top post in 1987.

That was the year Razaleigh, an ambitious prince from Kelantan, came close to toppling Mahathir from the Umno helm, falling short by just 43 votes. The fallout was spectacular and bitter.

Razaleigh, a cabinet minister for 11 years, herded his rival faction out of Umno for a spell in the opposition wilderness, forming the now defunct Semangat 46 (Spirit of '46), which needled Umno at every turn. Indeed, some political analysts credit the former finance minister and trade and industry minister with heralding a new culture of dissent in Malay politics. Before Razaleigh's bid, no one had mounted a direct, serious electoral challenge to the Umno leadership.

By challenging Mahathir, Razaleigh broke new ground in a no-holds barred contest and, in the process, shattered the aura of invincibility surrounding the Umno president. Though he failed by a whisker, Razaleigh overturned a tradition of absolute loyalty to the Umno leader, widely regarded as the Malay community's almost feudal protector.

After leaving Umno, Razaleigh, who first entered politics in 1962, struggled for eight years in opposition ranks. He formed two overlapping coalitions with the country's two main opposition parties during that period. His alliance with the Islamic Party, PAS, captured Kelantan in 1990 - and the predominantly Malay-Muslim state has remained firmly in opposition hands ever since.

But Razaleigh's larger goal of unseating Mahathir eluded him. Following two unsuccessful attempts at defeating the Mahathir-led ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition in federal elections, Razaleigh folded up Semangat and re-joined Umno with what he claimed were 200,000 supporters in 1996.

To be sure, since Mahathir's close call in 1987, Umno has taken various steps to make it difficult for aspiring contenders to challenge the party president and his deputy - all in the name of party unity.

To contest the presidency, an aspiring candidate now needs 50 nominations from the 165 Umno divisions nationwide, while the deputy presidency requires 33 nominations. That makes it tough going for any contender, since many divisions do not want to be seen as going against the party leadership.

On January 3, the Umno Supreme Council chaired by Mahathir also ''advised'' divisions and branches that the premier and his deputy, Badawi, should be nominated unopposed as party president and deputy president on May 11.

In the past, Umno party members would probably have no trouble toeing the line. But much has happened in the past two years. In 1998, Mahathir sacked his deputy premier, Anwar Ibrahim, in a move that unleashed the reformasi movement for wide-ranging reforms that still simmers, especially among the ethnic Malays who make up half the country's 22 million population.

The result of this was reflected in the outcome of last November's general election, where Umno lost key ground to PAS. Analysts have since said that Umno no longer commands majority support from its traditional power base, the Malays, despite claiming to have 2.7 million members. That makes the party leadership vulnerable to calls for a revamp.

Political scientist Johan Saravanamuttu says it is already ''quite clear that there are some clear rumblings on the ground that people are unhappy about the decision of a no-contest'' for the positions of party president and deputy president.

The grumblings are not without reason. By tradition, the nation's two top jobs - premier and deputy premier - have gone to the Umno president and his deputy. Many feel there should at least be a contest for the deputy president's post, still vacant following Anwar's ouster. Veteran Umno politician and former deputy premier Ghafar Baba has fuelled further talk after coming out in support of a contest for the top two posts.

''If Ghafar can be so candid about his position, there must certainly be other voices within the Umno top brass who are maybe a little afraid to voice their opinions openly at the moment,'' says Johan. ''If Umno does heed the no-contest advice, it is the beginning of the end for the democratic process within Umno.''

Mahathir says there is nothing to stop people from putting up a contest for the top slots. Yet for now, few observers expect him to be challenged, given the advantages incumbency brings. Instead, many expect Razaleigh to contest against Badawi for the number two slot. 'There's a degree of nervousness in the Badawi camp,'' says a Kuala Lumpur-based analyst. ''There is a lot of dissent within Umno.''

Meanwhile, Badawi has already staked a strong claim for the deputy president's position - the ruling coalition performed well in his home state of Penang and he helped the coalition win the last Sabah state elections. Razaleigh, by contrast, failed miserably in his task of re-capturing Kelantan for the ruling coalition in last November's general election. So, instead of challenging Badawi, Razaleigh may be yet be tempted to go for the number one slot now that Mahathir's position is vulnerable after Umno's poor performance in the general election.

There is already discussion about what is going to happen after Mahathir leaves, says Johan, who kicked off the discussion himself with a recent commentary titled 'Thinking the Thinkable: Politics after Mahathir''. He adds: ''Inside Umno, there is the same discourse about the post-Mahathir period. It's all about: after Mahathir, who and what? . . . Obviously, there are some cracks in the Umno edifice. It's not a major fissure yet. But I don't think things are well within Umno at the moment, there is something brewing within the party and the party leadership is not totally in control of the situation.''

(Inter Press Service)

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