Asia Times: Thailand to withdraw from South Korea


	June 23, 2000	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Thailand to withdraw from South Korea
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
June 22, 2000

Summary

Thailand may remove its troops from South Korea, a decision likely based on its own diplomatic maneuvering. The decision could spur further withdrawals, leaving the United States as the only foreign state with troops in the South. This gives Seoul more leverage in military negotiations with Washington and could threaten the US presence on the peninsula.

Analysis

Thailand is considering withdrawing its troops from South Korea, where they make up a small component of the UN command tasked with maintaining the armistice on the peninsula. For Thailand, removing the soldiers is simply an aspect of its regional diplomacy: in this case, improving its relations with North Korea. But if the decision is made, it could reverberate through the peninsula, eroding the United States' military position in South Korea.

Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan commented June 19 that Thailand would consult with the UN command in South Korea about withdrawing its troops, reported The Nation, a Thai newspaper. Surin noted that the security situation on the peninsula had greatly improved, especially after last week's inter-Korean summit. ''We have to review the matter,'' he said.

Besides Thailand, some 14 nations make up an armistice-monitoring group in Korea, the remnants of the UN-flagged force that fought in the Korean War 50 years ago. Other contributors include Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, according to the South Korean embassy. But, the deployments are ceremonial, not combat-tasked - Thailand only stationed a six-man honor guard and a liaison staff of five.

Thailand considered removing the troops as a cost-saving measure in 1997, as its economy began to fall apart. But in the current geopolitical context, removing the troops would be a diplomatic nod toward North Korea, which has been asking Thailand to withdraw from South Korea since 1994. Bangkok has tried to maintain good relations with Pyongyang; in 1998 Foreign Minister Surin explained that Thailand's presence in the border town of Panmunjom was not intended to be a violation of North Korean sovereignty.

Ties with the North are a long-term strategy for Thailand, which wants to be on good terms with a potentially major economic and political actor in Asia. Thailand may also be simply mirroring the entreaties of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which has invited North Korea to join the Asean Regional Forum (ARF).

But if Thailand does remove troops, it could set off a chain of events that shake the alliance between South Korea and the United States. Thailand's withdrawal could spark similar actions among other nations that provide troops. Tensions are at their lowest point in years, so why not leave? This could eventually leave the United States as the only foreign nation with troops on South Korean soil.

Of course, the UN-flagged forces don't have any combat value. But they serve a symbolic purpose; they maintain the fiction of foreign involvement on behalf of the United Nations, rather than the United States. The UN forces represent an international mandate and a remnant of the war between North Korea and the free world. To some degree this mollifies the fact that the United States maintains some 37,000 soldiers in South Korea under a separate command.

Cries for a US withdrawal from South Korea have grown louder in the past year, especially as tensions decrease with the North. A series of incidents involving the US military have made matters worse. A US soldier charged with murder escaped custody for several days in April. A US attack plane allegedly damaged a village when it released its bomb load. And stories about the Korean War massacre at No Gun Ri sparked protests at the US Embassy.

Seoul and Washington are currently revising the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which sets out the US military's mission in South Korea. SOFA acts not only as a deterrent to North Korea, but is central to the US military presence in Asia. It's doubtful that Thailand and the other nations will withdraw their troops soon enough to affect the current round of negotiations. The announcement, however, gives South Korea more leverage should it wish to whittle down the US presence or constrain its activities. In its extreme, the news from Thailand may mark the beginning of a stormy chapter in relations between South Korea and the United States.

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