Asia Times: Wahid's enemies plot an Islamic state


	March 10, 2001	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Wahid's enemies plot an Islamic state
By Kanis Dursin

JAKARTA - Political maneuvers aimed at ousting President Abdurrahman Wahid and eventually winning power for the Axis Group are raising concerns among Indonesian nationalists over the future of the state ideology, Pancasila, and thus the country's very existence.

Barely two years after the Axis Group vehemently rejected Megawati Sukarnoputri's presidential bid on the grounds that she is a woman, the group is now actively pushing the vice president to take over the leadership from the embattled Wahid, who is facing possible impeachment over his alleged involvement in two financial scandals. The fear is that once Megawati is president she could soon be dumped, opening the way for the power brokers to impose Islamic, or Shariah, law in Indonesia - and cause the country to break up.

The Axis Group consists of Muslim-based political parties such as the United Development Party (PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Crescent Star Party (PBB), and the Justice Party (PK). It is easy to believe they are intent on removing Wahid from office before his term ends in 2004. But looking at how the group has pursued its political agenda, it is hard to believe that it is power alone that is the goal.

Apart from PAN, all members of the Axis Group embrace Islam as party ideology. PAN, currently headed by Amien Rais, Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), accepts Pancasila as its ideology, but the recent exodus of close to 20 "nationalist" leaders from the party has stirred speculation that it is changing its ideological orientation. Pancasila, which literally means "five pillars", promotes belief in God, humanism, national unity, decision through consensus, and social justice.

PPP has long expressed its intention to adopt the so-called Jakarta Chapter, which calls for the implementation of Shariah law, while PBB, PK, and some small Muslim-based parties have silently supported the move. "The possibility of changing the state ideology from Pancasila to Islam is always there," says legislator Gregorious Seto Harianto of the Christian-based Democracy and Love the Nation Party (PDKB). He adds that if the Axis Group can mobilize New Order (Suharto-era) politicians, who are now seeking legitimacy by supporting the Islamic cause, it would be possible for the group to grab power and declare Indonesia an Islamic state.

If that happens, Indonesia will certainly break up. Provinces where Christianity is strong - East Nusatenggara, Maluku and North Sulawesi - have hinted that they would declare independence if Shariah law is adopted. This will create more problems for the country, which already faces secessionist movements in Irian Jaya, another Christian-dominated province, and Aceh, as well as social unrest in Central Kalimantan, West Kalimantan and Maluku.

Wahid, who was chairman of Indonesia's biggest Muslim organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) before he was elected president in October 1999, has always rejected the implementation of Shariah law. Likewise, Megawati has always promoted secular values and relied heavily on nationalist leaders for the advancement of her political career. With both Wahid and Megawati in power, it is extremely difficult to introduce Islamic laws in the country of 210 million people, 90 percent of whom are Muslims.

With less than 30 percent of seats in the MPR, the country's highest legislative body, it looks impossible for the Axis Group, at least for the time being, to push for the implementation of Shariah law. But size does not matter. Back in 1999, Amien Rais decisively steered the Axis Group members to support Wahid's presidential bid. The Axis Group seems to take one issue at a time. For now, it focuses on removing Wahid from his post and installing Megawati as the new president. Sooner or later, though, Megawati will become the group's next victim.

The US administration seems to have seen the danger of the Axis Group taking power in Indonesia and hinted that it may divert its support to the Indonesian military which, the US apparently believes, would be able to restore order and keep the unitary republic intact. Indeed, only the military can keep the country united, and it has consistently rejected the idea of implementing Shariah law. But given the military's low morale in the face of public criticism, it might prove to be too weak to resist the Axis Group's political maneuvers.

Meanwhile, the group has approached Megawati's husband, Taufik Kiemas, arguably the most influential person in Megawati's PDI-P. Amien Rais, Hamzah Haz, Yusril Ihza Mahendra - the chairpersons of PAN, PPP, and PBB respectively - together with representatives of PDI-P and the Golkar party met with Kiemas on March 2. Briefing the press after the meeting, Rais said they all agreed that there should be a change in national leadership. It is highly likely that they also talked about power sharing in a Megawati administration.

What puzzles many Indonesians is the Axis Group's sudden and swift change in its political stance, particularly on the issue of a woman president. In the run-up to the 1999 presidential election, the same political parties urged Muslim ulemmas (religious leaders) to issue a fatwa or teaching rejecting a woman president. Now, they are at the forefront in asking Megawati to replace Wahid, whom they have successfully portrayed as incapable of running the country.

Mahendra, who was fired from his post as justice and human rights minister last February, met with Megawati on March 8 to inform her that Muhammadiyah and the Islam Propagation Council (DDI), which championed the anti-woman president campaign in 1999, had reversed their stance in favor of a woman president. "If the president passes away, resigns or could not discharge his duties, then he has to be replaced. That is not a choice but a constitutional obligation and we all have to accept it," Mahendra said after the meeting.

He admitted that during the meeting Megawati had asked him about the policy change. "Mrs Megawati asked about it because she is worried that some quarters would raise the issue again once she becomes president," Mahendra said.

Legislators and political analysts are wary about the Axis Group's bold political maneuvers and have warned Megawati to be cautious about believing in the group's unreserved support. "How can the group change its fundamental principle so quickly? There is inconsistency in the group's political attitude and principles. Since they don't like Gus Dur [Wahid] now, they urge Megawati to become president. Their position might change again once Megawati becomes president," said PDI-P legislator Dimyati Hartono. Added Kastorius Sinaga, a political analyst and lecturer at University of Indonesia, "It is a political trap for Megawati, set up by power-hungry politicians."

The weakest point of a Megawati presidency would be her own husband, who is allegedly involved in shady business deals with state-owned oil-company Pertamina. Kiemas, who has no formal position in PDI-P, is known to have a close relationship with New Order politicians like Akbar Tandjung, speaker of the House of Representatives. He also has connections with problem conglomerates such as Nursalim and Maimutu Sinivasan. Some legislators have also alleged that Kiemas has brokered meetings between Indonesian businessmen and Wahid and/or Megawati. "Once Megawati becomes president, the Axis Group still has a ... card to attack her," says Harianto.

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