Asia Times: US bull in the Myanmar China shop


	April 25, 2001	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

US bull in the Myanmar China shop
By Boonthan Sakanond

CHIANG MAI, Thailand - As countries around the globe ponder the fallout from the US-China spat over the collision of a US spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet, none are more apprehensive than Southeast Asian nations close to the Chinese mainland.

For many of them - such as the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam - the reason to worry is obvious. They have territorial disputes with China over islands in the South China Sea and are afraid that a militarily assertive Beijing may leave no room for negotiations. For others, the anxiety lies in the fact that a deterioration in relations between the United States and China is bound to negatively affect their economies already battered by the 1997 Asian economic crisis.

But while the world's attention is focused on tensions to the north and east of China, some analysts in Thailand believe the real theater of any military action in the near future could be to the southwest, on China's weakest flank - Myanmar.

"Myanmar is the only true ally that China has in this entire region, apart from North Korea, and any US move against the military dictatorship in Yangon will be an easy way of telling Beijing off at its own doorstep," says an Asian diplomat in Bangkok.

While over the past decade the United States has expended much public rhetoric against the military dictatorship in Myanmar, it has never considered any serious action. But this may be changing in the wake of China's new identity as the biggest challenge to the United States' status as the world's sole superpower.

The context for a US role already exists with both Thailand and Myanmar, which in recent weeks have amassed troops along their borders and placed their armies at the highest state of alert in many decades. In February, shelling blamed on Myanmese troops in the northern Thai border town of Mae Sai killed several civilians and prompted the closure of the once-busy border checkpoint between the two countries.

While the Thais have accused the Myanmese government of actively supporting the production of methamphetamines across the border and flooding their country with drugs, the Myanmese allege that the Thai military has been actively helping ethnic Shan rebels in their battle for independence from Yangon. Despite some attempts at resolving their conflicts through negotiations, both countries have currently moved large numbers of troops and armaments to their common border areas in a tense standoff ready to flare up at any time.

Adding fuel to speculation about a dramatic escalation of this otherwise routine border war are a number of events that analysts claim show an increased US presence on the Thai side of the border. Since March, the northern Thai province of Chiang Rai, bordering Myanmar, has been host to more than 40 American military trainers ostensibly there to acquaint Thai infantry battalions with "anti-drug" warfare. While the US Drug Enforcement Agency has always been quite active along the Thai-Myanmar border that forms part of the notorious Golden Triangle - a traditional area of production of much of the world's heroin - this is the time first US aid to Thailand for combatting drugs has taken a purely military turn.

Next month, the number of US troops in the area is expected to rise drastically when, from May 15-29, 5,000 US troops will join nearly 6,000 Thai and other regional troops for a simulated drug interdiction action. The event is part of the annual joint Thai-US military exercise code-named "Cobra Gold". But because it comes at a time of heightened tensions on the Thai-Myanmar border, the location of the exercise is clearly meant to send a message to the generals in Yangon.

Apart from the worsening of US-China relations, the possibility of the US playing a more aggressive role in relation to Myanmar has increased considerably because of a confluence of several other factors.

The George W Bush administration in Washington, for example, is seen worldwide as being far more hawkish than its predecessor and willing to push the envelope beyond the norms of usual diplomacy. If it can pull off a major overturn in Myanmar's political establishment, the United States would re-establish its diminishing military role in Asia and occupy a strategic position in Myanmar as part of its long-term policy of "encircling" China.

"Upsetting the reigning order in Myanmar - even if it takes some muscle - would be an easy way of threatening China at its doorstep without risking a major confrontation," says a Thai defense analyst based in Thailand.

Since the crushing of the Myanmese pro-democracy movement in the late 1980s, the military regime in Yangon has moved closer to China. Beijing has supplied it with military and material help, but it is doubtful if it would risk much more to defend Myanmar against a concerted US effort to topple the regime.

Within Thailand itself, there is a strange nexus developing between the Thai military - deprived of any political role because of changed political realities for nearly a decade - and clueless businessmen-turned-politicians trying to steer an economy now in a deep mess. With the flaring up of tensions along the Thai-Myanmar border, the Thai military senses a way of getting back onto the center stage of national attention. For the politicians, an anti-Myanmar campaign is an easy way of diverting attention from their own domestic failures on the economic front.

Furthermore, within Myanmar itself there is an internecine struggle under way between "hardliners" led by General Maung Aye and the "moderates" under Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt, who is also the Secretary Number One of the ruling State Peace and Democracy Council (SPDC). Any strong external pressure on the regime, which is possible only militarily, could even lead to a split in its top rungs and bring down the dictatorship more easily.

While a section of Myanmese pro-democracy groups are strongly averse to any foreign intervention in Myanmar to "restore democracy", they admit that if the ball is set rolling by Thailand and the United States, there will be many in their own ranks who will join in happily. "Though our own movement is non-violent, there will be few voices opposing any attempts to overthrow the Myanmese dictatorship by force," admits a senior member of the Myanmese opposition in exile.

The justification for international military intervention, he says, has existed for over a decade, as has the case against the Myanmese military, responsible for the deaths and displacement of thousands of Myanmese and other ethnic minority dissidents. In many ways, he points out, there is a much stronger case against the Myanmese regime than the one the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had for military action against the former Yugoslav regime of Slobodan Milosevic over its alleged atrocities in Kosovo.

Myanmar has a history of using outside help to overthrow domestic dictatorships. Leaders of the Myanmese independence movement, led by General Aung San in the 1930s, used Japanese help to drive out the British colonialists. When the tide turned in favor of the Allies in World War II, they invited the British back to oust the Japanese army.

However, any outside intervention in Myanmar will not be easy due to the complicated web of relations the military junta has woven with the country's ethnic minority groups, many of whom have signed ceasefire agreements with the government despite fighting for independence for years. Any international effort to "liberate" Myanmar from dictatorship would become bogged down in problems related to renewed demands that might come from minority groups for independence. This is an issue still controversial within Myanmese pro-democracy groups, many of whom support autonomy but not outright secession.

A lot, of course, depends finally on how US-China relations pan out in the coming months. If they kiss and patch things up, the United States is likely to back off from any confrontation on the Myanmar front, but if tensions escalate the chances of a US-led intervention could be very much in the cards.

(Inter Press Service)

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©2001 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.