Asia Times: HEY JOE<BR> Legitimate concerns


	May 29, 2001	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

HEY JOE
Legitimate concerns
By Ted Lerner

MANILA - Years from now, when historians look back on the administration of Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, it's becoming more and more apparent that they will likely describe her period in office as one of politically turbulent and unstable times in the Philippines.

This, of course, is not the image the government is trying to project to the world. It is going all out to prove to that, under her watch, the Philippines is stable, is back in business and the perfect place to invest that foreign capital, which the debt-ridden and economically depressed country so sorely needs.

Indeed, immediately after the recent May 14 elections, in which thousands of local positions, every seat in the House of Representatives and 13 of 24 seats in the powerful Senate were contested, Arroyo linked up to a satellite from her office in Manila and told an international gathering in Hong Kong that the relatively peaceful elections were proof that she was in control and that the Philippines was ready to do business with the world.

She conveniently failed to mention that the campaign had been considered one of the dirtiest in Philippine history, with more than 100 people killed in the run-up to the voting. Since then, the picture has failed to improve much. Accusations of cheating by both main camps - that of Arroyo's party and that of former president Joseph Estrada's party - have been widespread, with each side claiming it has damning evidence against the other. Even now, a little more than two weeks since the election, the vote-counting continues at a snail's pace, with barely three-quarters of the ballots officially tallied. While perhaps this is not the kind of efficiency that investors are looking for, Arroyo still looks like she will come out with a majority in the Senate, which should enable her to pass some serious legislation. She had been hoping for a clean 13-0 sweep for her candidates in the Senate race, but has expressed satisfaction that at least eight look like they'll make it.

So now that the elections are over, and the dust of partisan politics settling, the question remains; is the Philippines now stable? Is now the perfect time for investors to come in and do business, as the Arroyo administration says it is?

While Arroyo is certainly the de facto president, serious questions are still being raised about her legitimacy. Ever since she was swept to power in January via a military-backed uprising, she and her supporters have been forced to constantly proclaim she is the legitimate president of the country.

Arroyo first pointed to the fact that the Supreme Court legitimized her rule by twice rejecting Estrada's petition that he was still the duly elected president. This idea, and even the legitimacy of the Supreme Court, was shattered in late April with a mass outpouring from Estrada's legions of supporters after his heavy-handed arrest to face charges of corruption. By turning out in the millions, the masses were clearly stating their belief that Estrada was still the president and that Arroyo was a usurper of power. Realizing she needed to prove herself once again, Arroyo next staked her legitimacy on the May 14 elections, which boiled down to a race between her candidates and those still aligned with Estrada.

Although it appears Arroyo will receive a slim majority which will enable her to govern, the elections have glaringly highlighted the sharp divisions that exist in Philippine society. Estrada remains a powerful force in Philippine politics. This, even after the Arroyo administration slapped rebellion charges on several of his candidates resulting from the May 1 march on the presidential palace. One candidate, Senator Juan Ponce Enrile, was arrested and two others, Senator Gringo Honasan and former Estrada police chief Panfilo Lacson, went into hiding and off the campaign trail just two weeks before the elections. As of now, it appears candidates from Estrada's party, including Honasan and Lacson, as well as his wife, Loi, will win four more seats in the Senate.

There's a line of thinking that even with only a slight majority in the Senate and the House, many independents and even some of the opposition will eventually fall in line with the administration.

Party affiliations tend to be very tenuous in Philippine politics. That's because the president wields tremendous power and influence, mostly by controlling and doling out the coveted "pork barrel". This amounts to huge sums of money given directly to congress men and women for development projects in their home provinces. This is why candidates spend upwards of US$1 million to get a job that pays perhaps $1,000 a month. (Wink, wink.)

On the other hand, the very nature of Arroyo's coming to power is cause for concern. Many people are now saying that what happened in January was not a "People's Power" revolution, just a plain old coup d'etat. It didn't matter how many people were out on the streets, they claim, if it wasn't for the military withdrawing it's support from Estrada, Arroyo would not now be sitting in Malacanang Palace.

It is also an open secret that at the height of the mass uprising by Estrada's supporters in late April, Arroyo cut a deal with the powerful Iglesia ni Cristo church and the El Shaddai charismatic movement, both of which boast millions of members and both of which were known supporters of Estrada, to call off the masses in exchange for house arrest for the former leader, rather than jail.

Also recently, the left, which played a big role in Arroyo's ascension to power, has threatened mass demonstrations over the administration's proposal to immediately sell off the debt-ridden state owned power company.

It all makes one wonder how long this odd coalition of leftists siding with capitalists and big business, and the Catholic Church aligning with the rich can hold together. One wonders whether if each group doesn't get their way, will they take to the streets and demand for a change in leadership yet again? For that seems to be what that phenomenon they like to call "People's Power" is all about. Sure, it sounds warm and fuzzy, but it opens up a whole can of worms that has nothing to with constitutional democracy.

There can only be one "People's Power" in a democracy and it's called an election. The next presidential election is two-and-a-half-years away. With the law having been twisted to suit the ambitions of a few, the very legitimacy of the presidency will always be open to question and the threat of blackmail. That means that between now and 2004, when a real, duly elected president will be chosen, the Philippines will be a place where anything can happen and probably will.

And that's not exactly what those coveted foreign investors like to hear.

Ted Lerner is the author of the book, Hey, Joe - A Slice of the City, an American in Manila. He can be reached at tedlheyjoe@yahoo.com.

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