Asia Times: Under the (developing) volcano


	June 2, 2001	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

THE ROVING EYE
Under the (developing) volcano
By Pepe Escobar

JAKARTA - As usual, the wayang - shadow play - was larger than life: drama, suspense, passion, a few stars, a cast of millions, and occasional drops of blood. But unlike all dire predictions, Indonesia did not burst into flames in a mega-remake of Krakatau when the House of Representatives called for a special session on August 1 which paves the way for Gus Dur's impeachment. Under the volcano, the government was even capable of unflappably organizing and concluding the G-15 summit of developing countries - a forum of 19 in fact which includes, among others, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria.

The script was one of a dream movie. As President Abdurrahman Wahid received his red card from a chaotic assembly meeting inside a building surrounded by riot police and mobs of supporters mingling with ice cream and nasi goreng vendors, only 500 hundred yards away world leaders including Malaysia's Mahathir, Zimbabwe's Mugabe, Venezuela's Chavez and the vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran were discussing the possible benefits of information technology.

A high-tech info-fair added to the circus atmosphere. Some delegates could not repress their ironic smiles when, commuting through an underground passage between a hotel and the convention center simultaneously holding the summit and the fair, they saw a photo of a breezy Suharto greeting a smiling Arafat in his gun-toting days.

Nobody in their right mind would dare say the political game is settled in Jakarta and that with Gus Dur's impeachment Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri's ascension is a done deal. Anything can happen during this extra-time (with a penalty shoot-out?) of two months - from total anarchy to a possible ritualized, consensual and highly desirable Javanese solution to the institutional crisis. Craving some sleep, Indonesian Foreign Minister Alwi Shihab, at the end of the G-15 summit, practically swore to Allah there would be no state of emergency: the government's mantra is "compromise, compromise, compromise". But what kind of compromise?

As Megawati is no Arroyo of the Philippines, Gus Dur is no Estrada. The president's alleged involvement in the Buloggate and Bruneigate corruption scandals was officially dismissed by attorney-general Marzuki Darusman only a short time before the House vote. Now Gus Dur will have to be impeached on other grounds - such as incompetence, erratic rule or "health reasons". The Indonesian constitution is extremely vague as far as impeachment is concerned.

Gus Dur has already pulled almost all Komodo dragons from his famous bag of tricks. He only gave up on the idea of a state of emergency minutes before going live on national television as there was no support from either the cabinet or the military. His offer of power-sharing was rejected by Megawati and her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), on the grounds it would be as ineffective as a previous offer last year; and Gus Dur would not agree on its ratification by the House of Representatives. Some political analysts admit this refusal could one day come back to haunt Megawati. People are tired of the wayang - and just want the country to move on from the current impasse.

According to a poll published by Tempo magazine, 86.2 percent of respondents believe Gus Dur will be impeached. But although 79.6 percent believe Megawati will become president, there is absolutely no guarantee this is going to be the case. At any time, politicians from Golkar or the coalition that helped Gus Dur to power, the Central Axis - led by over-ambitious Amien Rais - could develop their own ideas.

Political scientist Andi Mallarangeng thinks Megawati can form a strong government because the PDI-P controls 35 percent of the House. But Gus Dur and the National Awakening Party (PKB) - which control only 8 percent of the House - would certainly push for new elections as soon as possible. Wild rumors in Jakarta also suggest coordinating minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - the actual go-between between Gus Dur and Megawati - is being groomed for power on a Golkar-TNI alliance that would, in effect, return the New Order of the Suharto era to prominence, something that would certainly rattle the masses to Krakatau fury.

At the end of the G-15 summit, Gus Dur was as defiant as Steven Seagal: he said the House's decision did not affect the discussions one bit. Obviously he did not disclose his next moves. He preferred to emphasize the macro, not the micro-situation: the developing world from now on would speak "as a united front". According to him, "developed countries took full advantage of the current situation. But now we can take our own place in world trade."

In the Jakarta declaration, developing countries pledge to speak with one harmonious voice. They recognize that "information and communication technologies (ICT) have the potential to accelerate sustained economic growth and promote sustainable development in developing countries". But they are "deeply concerned that, at present, the huge potential is largely eluding most developing countries, resulting in a growing digital divide". The now 19 members of the G-15 want "affordable access to new technologies on favorable terms, improved market access for exports from the south and enhanced capital and investment flows to developing countries". And they want their Internet - but with "preservation of cultural diversity, privacy and other aspects of "info-ethics".

Most leaders emphasizes this was the first G-15 summit with a specific theme - ICT. However, it can be distressing to discuss the digital divide when many G-15 countries have extremely little digital access to begin with. Brazilian Vice President Marco Maciel insists on a "risk fund to provide access to info-technology. It should be done through a pool of international agencies. Otherwise we will be subjected to a new form of cultural colonialism, already in place, and dividing the world between those who know, and those who don't."

Delegates from many countries were eager to disprove the global media's perception of the G-15 as a mere talk-shop. They stress the G-15 is not a regional organization: its main concern is South-South dialogue, uniting three continents and many countries with wildly diverse per capita GNPs, culture and political perceptions. Some leaders are in favor of frank dialogue with rich G-8 countries. But diplomats remark some other leaders are more confrontational - accusing the G-8 of living in an ivory tower.

Iran's Vice President Hassan Habibi's intervention was widely praised. Brazil's Maciel felt in Iran "a great desire for modernization". Habibi's speech not only singled out the economic abyss, but the planet's "moral and spiritual poverty". According to Iran, the World Trade Organization "has to take effective steps to put in place a fair, equitable and non-discriminatory worldwide trade management". And Iran condemns "the culture of exclusion and application of unilateral political and economic pressures, and extraterritorial imposition of domestic legislation by certain big powers". So Khatami's policy of "dialogue among civilizations" is alive and well while, at the same time, Iran is clearly positioning itself as a hub and getaway to a mega-market of 350 million people in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Persian Gulf.

Mahathir, as usual, was one of the G-15's stars - beside a visibly tired Mugabe, a subdued Megawati and the outspoken Hugo Chavez, who is very popular even in China. Mahathir was keen to point out the "negative aspects of globalization that can have very harmful effects for developing countries". And he predictably blasted the G-8 for its "unilateral decisions: the rest have no way to protest".

Privately, diplomats agree the G-15 will be an effective voice for the reform of the international financial architecture only by including all of the so-called "middle class" countries, such as China, South Africa and Turkey. In practice, the perspective of a developing world speaking with one voice is still a mirage. The G-15 moves to Caracas in 2002, where President Chavez will deliver a lot of thunder and apparently much more action. Mahathir says "he has ideas to make the G-15 much more effective". Charismatic Chavez also gets along very well with Gus Dur. At the end of the summit, he told the Kyai - Almighty - he expected to see him in Caracas in 2002. Gus Dur didn't miss a beat: "I'll be there." It's up to the House in Jakarta - or to a volcanic intervention - to determine whether Gus Dur travels as a president or as an accidental tourist.

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