Asia Times: Southeast Asia


	June 28, 2002	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Mahathir moves on: Malaysia's uncertain future
By Anil Netto

PENANG - Malaysians are pondering an uncertain future after this week's announcement that Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad will step down in October next year after 21 years in power.

On Tuesday night, the supreme council of the Mahathir-led United Malays National Organization (UMNO) announced that there would be a 16-month transition period leading to the retirement of one of Southeast Asia's longest-serving rulers.

The announcement of Mahathir's retirement comes after the 76-year-old premier's stunning decision to quit his leadership posts in the party and the ruling coalition, which he announced unexpectedly in an address to his party on Saturday. An hour later, he retracted his decision after being persuaded to do so by stunned UMNO officials.

But the relatively long transition period raises more questions than it answers. The politically painful process of transition also shows how Mahathir has dominated Malaysia's political landscape for decades, so much so that the system has not produced clear potential successors or alternative leaders - or at least those that have survived the country's politics - so far.

Mahathir's chosen successor, deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, the fourth person to hold the post during Mahathir's tenure, remains largely untested.

Abdullah, a former foreign minister, will have to contend with many challenges, including possible factional infighting within UMNO as well as within the second largest party in the ruling coalition, the Malaysian Chinese Association. Electorally, UMNO will also have to square off against the conservative opposition Islamic party, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).

At the grassroots level, Abdullah could face resistance to moves to widen the usage of English in education and to introduce meritocracy in education after years of affirmative action, the basis for the support of Malays on which UMNO relies on for political backing.

Abdullah will also have to deal with dwindling foreign direct investment and the challenges of opening up markets to global competition. A few speculate that Mahathir wants to test Abdullah's mettle, to see if he is up to the job, failing which the premier could stay on past the October 2003 deadline. The formula for selecting the deputy premier has also yet to be spelled out, though any one of the three UMNO vice presidents could be chosen to move up to the No 2 post. In addition, dark horses lurk on the UMNO sidelines, figures who at one time or another fell out of favor with Mahathir but have since mended relations.

"There will be a much more contestation within the party itself," foresees political scientist Johan Saravanamuttu. "They might close ranks within UMNO for the moment. But for how long will Abdullah be able to lead the party before being challenged?" He could well be challenged from within the party eventually, he predicts, leading to uncertainty in a post-Mahathir era despite Mahathir's efforts to ensure a smooth transition.

Abdullah's predecessor as deputy premier was Anwar Ibrahim, who supporters say cannot be ignored in the political equation and whose fate may be shaped by what happens after Mahathir as well. Now serving jail terms totaling 15 years after convictions that his camp says were linked to a fallout with Mahathir in 1999, Anwar has been largely marginalized for now. A Federal Court decision on his appeal on the first of his two convictions is expected soon.

Raja Petra Kamarudin, director of the Free Anwar Campaign, says, "There is going to be a realignment of loyalties within UMNO. Whoever takes over as prime minister, the Anwar issue is not going to go away." Agrees P Ramakrishnan of the non-government group Aliran, "Whoever Abdullah eventually chooses [as his new deputy], he is going to make the other two [vice presidents] unhappy. Those who are overlooked may form an alliance and could align themselves with the Anwar group."

But Abdullah flatly dismissed the possibility of party infighting. "What we want is unity and strength," he said in making the announcement of the transition period, a huge portrait of Mahathir looming above him on the wall directly behind him. "If anyone assumes that when Dr Mahathir is not around, the party would become chaotic, I believe, with the spirit that was shown today [in the UMNO leadership], this would not happen."

UMNO, however, has also to reckon with PAS, which is proving to be a formidable force although some are wary of its Islamic policies as the ruling coalition uses these fears to get people's support in the post-September 11 era. But just as the opposition led by Anwar is searching for a key leader, the Islamic party is also undergoing a transition after the death on Sunday of its moderate leader Fadzil Noor, also opposition leader in parliament. Still, some say that the presence of tens of thousands of people at Fadzil's funeral carries a message in itself. "Reformasi is not dead. It's just that people need a good reason to come out," said Raja Petra, who was at the funeral.

Abdul Hadi Awang, the hardline chief minister of the east coast state of Terengganu, is now acting PAS president but it is not clear who from the party will take over as opposition leader. Analysts worry that with Hadi at the helm, PAS will usher in a new phase of conservative policies. Already Hadi's Terengganu state is trying to introduce strict Islamic Sharia (hudud and qisas) laws, likely to be blocked by the federal government.

"There is a new sort of PAS with the demise of Fadzil," says Johan. "It is common knowledge that Hadi will take a harder line on Islam with no compromises with UMNO. There will be a clearer line drawn for the Malays.

"In order for UMNO to meet the PAS challenge, they will have to do something about Anwar," he suggests. How that will take shape is hard to foresee, but Ramakrishnan thinks that once Mahathir is gone, "a pardon for Anwar at that stage may be possible".

Another uncertainty is whether Abdullah can hold together the largely ethnic-based ruling coalition parties under the National Front, as Mahathir did using the sheer force of his personality and power.

The transition period will also be closely watched to see if Abdullah can come out of the shadow of the man who has dominated Malaysian politics for the past two decades.

(Inter Press Service)